DRAM and NAND shortages could run to 2030, consumer device output to fall
Source: Reuters/ChenTalkShow
Many consumer electronics manufacturers could “go bankrupt or exit product lines” by the end of 2026 due to the AI-driven memory shortage, according to a reported interview with Phison Electronics CEO Chien Cheng Pan
The Pan was invited to ChenTalkShow where he explained the supply-demand imbalance for DRAM and NAND Flash could persist until 2030. It also claims memory suppliers are demanding “three years” of prepayment for supply, framing the current situation as a seller-driven market.
On the consumer side, the Phison CEO predicts a “massive die-off” among system companies , with many shutting down or exiting product lines from year-end through 2026 because they cannot secure memory. It also forecasts smartphone production falling by 200 to 250 million units, alongside “significant” cuts in PC and TV output. As an example of price pressure, it claims 8GB eMMC rose from about $1.5 in early 2025 to about $20, with automotive-grade pricing approaching $30, while availability remains inconsistent.
“On the consumer side, a lot of companies will die off. If you can’t get components, a system maker missing even one part simply can’t keep operating.”
— Chien Cheng Pan, Phison Electronics CEO (translation)
Suppliers tend to prioritize higher-margin buyers when shortages tighten, and Pan argues that hurts consumer device makers first. He says memory can account for over 20% of a smartphone bill of materials, versus about 5% to 6% for servers, which makes it easier for data center customers to pay up and secure allocation. He also says constrained supply could extend device lifespans, because consumers may repair products rather than replace them.
Pan also argues that the current squeeze on DRAM and NAND Flash is due to demand for AI infrastructure. He also mentioned NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin as a concrete example. He says NVIDIA’s own disclosures imply “each Vera Rubin GPU” would be paired with “20+TB of SSD,” and that if NVIDIA shipped 10 million units, that SSD requirement alone would consume about 20% of last year’s global NAND output by his math, before counting the extra storage needed for the data those systems generate.
Source: ChenTalkShow , QQ-Timmy , PC Gamer
