SINGAPORE/SEOUL -- A virtual ASEAN Regional Forum ministerial meeting Friday evening is expected to look at issues including Korean Peninsula security and, if North Korea sends a representative, provide an opportunity for the reclusive country to talk with the international community.
The annual forum, led by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, is a rare international platform in which Pyongyang regularly participates. Among the 27 members are China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, the U.S. and the European Union.
Most members will have their foreign ministers take part, but North Korea is believed to have assigned Ambassador to Indonesia An Kwang Il instead of Foreign Minister Ri Son Gwon, South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported on Thursday. The foreign minister also skipped the previous two years' meetings, with only ambassadors appearing.
North Korea had not officially announced its participation in Friday's event as of publication time. This year's meeting, chaired by Brunei, comes just after revelations of some form of testing activity at North Korea's Yongbyon nuclear complex.
There would be "two main purposes for North Korea in this year's ARF," said Yongwook Ryu, assistant professor at the National University of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
One would be to seek international help for its worsening COVID-19 situation and growing food shortage. Little is known about the scale of the North's coronavirus infections, but Ryu noted that Pyongyang's recent resumption of direct communication with Seoul was a sign of deteriorating domestic socioeconomic conditions. "It will look for opportunities for international assistance at the ARF, too," the professor said.
North Korea's economy contracted by 4.5% last year, according to an estimate by South Korea's central bank, marking the biggest downturn under Kim Jong Un's regime.
The second objective would be "to rekindle its hope for developing its relationship with the U.S. under the Joe Biden administration," Ryu said, pointing out Kim is well-aware that relief from international sanctions depends on better relations with Washington.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, however, had "no plans to engage" his counterpart on any particular issues, a State Department official told reporters earlier this week. The virtual format of the gathering, unlike normal physical meetings, will make it difficult for participants to hold separate informal discussions.
"The ARF sometimes provides opportunity for quiet diplomacy with North Korean representatives on the meeting's sidelines, but this may not be possible in the virtual format," said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. "So the North Korean ambassador is likely to stick with Pyongyang's recent talking points of showing some interest in dialogue while trying to drive a wedge between Seoul and Washington on defense exercises."
A South Korean Foreign Ministry spokesperson told reporters on Thursday that Minister Chung Eui-yong intends to lay out Seoul's efforts for the peace process on the Korean Peninsula, including the restoration of the inter-Korean military hotline.
Blinken and Chung had a call ahead of the ARF meeting, in which the U.S. secretary "confirmed U.S. support for inter-Korean dialogue and engagement," according to the State Department.
The establishment of permanent peace on the peninsula has long been a key priority for the ARF, which also discusses broad regional issues including the South China Sea disputes.
In last year's chairman's statement, prepared by Vietnam, the participating ministers "stressed the importance of sustained and peaceful dialogue amongst all concerned parties" and urged North Korea "to fulfill its stated commitment to complete denuclearization and its pledge to refrain from further nuclear and missile tests."