DUBAI -- One year after Israel and the United Arab Emirates reached a historic normalization agreement, ties between the Middle Eastern states are thriving. The prospects for Israel extending its diplomatic gains to Asia's Muslim-majority countries, however, appear dim at best.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced the deal on Aug. 13, 2020, and the agreement was signed about a month later. Trade between the UAE and Israel has since reached $570 billion, according to local media reports citing the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics.

Last month, the UAE opened its embassy at a Tel Aviv location symbolizing high hopes for economic dividends -- the stock exchange building. This came after Israel opened an embassy in Abu Dhabi and a consulate in Dubai.

Jerusalem quickly followed the UAE deal with other U.S.-brokered agreements last year, with Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. Foreign Minister Yair Lapid this week made the first visit to Morocco by a top Israeli diplomat since 2003.

But experts say the flourishing relationships have done little to persuade Asia's mainly Muslim countries -- namely Indonesia and Malaysia -- to change their official rejection of Israel and unwavering support for the Palestinian cause. Despite some not-so-secret unofficial interaction, particularly between Israel and Indonesia, there is little political appetite in Southeast Asia to go out on a limb.

"I do not think Indonesia or Malaysia will normalize relations with Israel," Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat, an academic from Universitas Islam Indonesia, told Nikkei Asia. "Both countries, despite the growing ties, do not see the Middle East, or Israel in particular, of strategic importance. Secondly, both Indonesia and Malaysia pay more attention to the domestic repercussions" if they were to make ties with Israel official.

"Most people in these countries remain pro-Palestinian, and thus the governments do not want to jeopardize domestic stability over a relationship with a country that they do not see as important."

A woman holds a poster against Indonesian recognition of Israel outside the U.S. Embassy in Jakarta on May 21, after days of Israel-Gaza violence.   © AP

Samuel Ramani, politics and international relations tutor at the University of Oxford, agreed that "the short-term prospect of Malaysia or Indonesia recognizing Israel is unlikely." He suggested the departure from power last year of longtime Israel critic Mahathir Mohamad -- often accused of veering into antisemitism -- "could enhance Israel-Malaysia covert commercial relations." But he stressed bilateral tensions remain high, especially after widespread rumors that Israel sought to target operatives of the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas in Malaysia during the Gaza conflict in May .

Ramani added: "I think Israel viewed the Abraham Accords as a possible steppingstone for other Gulf countries, such as Saudi Arabia, Oman and perhaps down the line, Qatar, to normalize with Israel. It also hoped for more immediate normalizations in Africa, such as Niger or Mauritania. Normalizations between Israel, Malaysia and Indonesia were always regarded as a more remote prospect, and this is exactly what has panned out."

Indonesia in late June insisted that it was not looking at establishing diplomatic ties with the new Israeli government of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, after reported overtures from the Israeli ambassador to Singapore, Sagi Karni. In an earlier interview with Nikkei Asia, Karni had decried Southeast Asian "megaphone diplomacy" over the Palestinian issue and suggested Israel was keen to expand relations in Asia.

One factor that has helped to bring Israel and some Arab neighbors together is not so much in play in Asia: a common enemy in Iran.

"These Southeast Asian Muslim countries also do not have the concern of the fight against Iran, which are concerns for Gulf countries such as the UAE and Bahrain," said professor Yossi Melkelberg, associate fellow of the MENA Programme at Chatham House.

But the biggest sticking point, arguably, remains the Palestinians.

Palestinians protest in Jerusalem in May 2021. (Photo by Ayman Abu Ramouz)

This year's Gaza war hammered home that although Israel was making strides in overcoming decades of Arab rejection, dating back to its foundation in 1948, the conflict with the Palestinians and their unresolved demands for a state could not be ignored. Led by Hamas, militants fired thousands of rockets at Israeli territory, killing more than 10 people. Israeli strikes on Gaza meanwhile killed around 250 Palestinians, according to the United Nations, roughly half of them reported to be civilians.

"Israel aggression must be put to a stop," Indonesian President Joko Widodo wrote at the time. His foreign minister, Retno Marsudi, emphasized that Jakarta supports the "Palestinian struggle." And Malaysian Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin called on the international community "to force Israel to stop its attacks on the Palestinian people."

Nevertheless, some in Israel harbor at least modest hopes for diplomatic openings with a wider array of nations.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog and UAE Ambassador to Israel Mohamed Al Khaja open the Emirati embassy in Tel Aviv on July 14, 2021.   © Reuters

Fleur Hassan-Nahoum, who serves as deputy mayor of Jerusalem, told Nikkei Asia that "Israel would welcome normalization with more Arab and Southeast Asian Muslim countries."

She argued that what is blocking a resolution of the Palestinian issue is the Palestinian leadership itself, which is divided between President Mahmoud Abbas' Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza.

"We are very far from a peace negotiation," Hassan-Nahoum said. "There is no possibility of a Palestinian state if it is run by Muslim Brotherhood gangsters," she added, referring to the Egyptian movement that spawned Hamas.

"Self-preservation is the ultimate goal of Israel," she said.

Southeast Asia's Muslim countries are unlikely to share her view of the Palestinian situation anytime soon. But Hassan-Nahoum, who is responsible for Jerusalem's development, alluded to the benefits more normalization could bring to the city's tourism-driven economy. "My vision," she said," is for Jerusalem to be a destination for all Muslim pilgrims."