WASHINGTON/NEW YORK/NEW DELHI -- The Taliban have captured more cities in Afghanistan, including Kandahar -- the country's second-largest city and the Islamist militant group's birthplace -- forcing the Biden administration to confront the grim possibility that the capital Kabul could fall in the coming weeks.
Ahead of the full withdrawal of U.S. troops on Aug. 31, Denmark and Norway on Friday announced the closure of their embassies and evacuation of their staff, while Germany said it would reduce its personnel to the bare minimum and increase security. The U.S., U.K. and Canada will deploy troops to evacuate their respective embassy staff.
The Taliban now control at least 14 of the country's 34 provincial capitals. Kandahar was the Islamist movement's headquarters before the previous Taliban government collapsed in December 2001. The city's recapture is likely to boost the morale of the insurgent fighters.
The Eurasia Group, a think tank, sees an 80% probability of the Afghan government falling with the next month, according to a note Friday.
U.S. President Joe Biden and his national security team were briefed Friday "on the ongoing efforts to safely drawdown the civilian footprint in Afghanistan," the White House said as both the United Nations chief and Britain's defense secretary warned of the risk for civil war.
The Afghan military looks increasingly isolated. On Thursday, the Taliban took control of Herat, the country's third-largest city, as well as Ghazni, a city situated 130 km southwest of Kabul. Along with Kandahar and the northern city of Kunduz, the country's major arteries are falling into the Taliban's hands, showing the group's intent to seize control of logistics nationwide.
The Taliban also overran the towns of Lashkar Gah in the south and Qala-e-Naw in the northwest, as well as Firuz Koh, the capital of central Ghor Province, according to a security official quoted by Reuters.
The insurgents have detained veteran militia leader Mohammad Ismail Khan, a pro-American warlord who had been holding out for years against the Taliban in Herat. Social media showed Khan in custody of the Taliban.
Aid groups warn of the potential for a refugee crisis and a reversal of progress on human rights. About 400,000 civilians have been driven from their homes since the start of the year, 250,000 of them since May, a U.N. official told Reuters.
Internally displaced Afghans from northern provinces, who fled their home due to fighting between the Taliban and Afghan security personnel, take refuge in a public park Kabul, Afghanistan on Aug. 13. © AP Biden has struck a resolute note in the face of Afghanistan's descent into turmoil.
"I do not regret my decision," he said Tuesday. "Afghan leaders have to come together. We lost thousands, lost to death and injury, thousands of American personnel. They've got to fight for themselves, fight for their nation."
But when asked by reporters about the rapidly deteriorating situation Thursday, the president walked away without answering.
That day the Biden administration decided to draw down staff at its embassy in Kabul. State Department spokesperson Ned Price called the move a "prudent step, a prudent reduction."
But Biden faces increasing criticism at home. The Republican leader in the U.S. Senate, Mitch McConnell, said the exit strategy was sending the U.S. "hurtling toward an even worse sequel to the humiliating fall of Saigon in 1975." McConnell urged Biden to commit to providing more support to Afghan forces.
U.S. President Joe Biden has said he does not regret his decision to withdraw from Afghanistan. © Reuters Meanwhile, as the Taliban calls on President Ashraf Ghani to resign to continue the stalled peace process, the administration in Kabul is holding its ground.
"It was decided with conviction & resolve that WE STAND FIRM AGAINST TALIBAN TERRORISTS & DO EVERTYHING [sic] TO STRENGTHEN THE NATIONAL RESISTANCE BY ALL MEANS AND WAYS. PERIOD," First Vice President Amrullah Saleh tweeted after a national security meeting chaired by Ghani. "We are proud of our [armed forces]."
Michael Kugelman, the South Asia director at the Wilson Center in Washington, said a Ghani resignation would lead to a solution.
"Ghani needs to step down," Kugelman told Nikkei Asia. "That is really the only way forward. It is the only thing stopping the Taliban from advancing on Kabul."
Aizaz Chaudhry, the former Pakistani ambassador to Washington, agreed, saying, "The United States should persuade Ashraf Ghani to announce his resignation and willingness to join an interim setup."
The swift pace of the Taliban takeover has spurred the Biden administration to send 3,000 fresh troops to Kabul airport to help with embassy-staff evacuation and deploy thousands more to the region to be on standby.
For its part, the U.K. said about 600 troops would be deployed on a short-term basis to support British nationals leaving the country. Canada is sending special forces to help evacuate its embassy.
As the allies complete their evacuation, Britain's defense chief warned on Friday that Afghanistan is tipping toward civil war.
"Britain found that out in the 1830s, that it is a country led by warlords and led by different provinces and tribes, and you end up, if you're not very careful, in a civil war, and I think we are heading toward a civil war," Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the BBC.
Wallace said the West must understand that the Taliban is not a single entity but a title for a myriad of competing interests. He expressed concern that Afghanistan was spiraling toward a failed state that could become a haven for militants such as al-Qaida, which "will probably come back."
Afghan military and officials leave Kandahar city during fighting between the Taliban and Afghan security personnel on Aug. 12. © AP United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres echoed Wallace's warning, saying a military takeover "can only lead to prolonged civil war or to the complete isolation of Afghanistan."
"I call on the Taliban to immediately halt the offensive negotiate in good faith in the interest of Afghanistan and its people," Guterres said.
Regional power India is watching with concern as well. Arindam Bagchi, spokesperson of India's Ministry of External Affairs, told a media briefing Thursday evening India hopes for an immediate and comprehensive cease-fire.
"We are supporting all peace initiatives in Afghanistan," he said. "Our primary concern is peace and stability in that country and offering a prosperous future -- independent, sovereign and democratic."
Asked whether India was holding discussions with the Taliban, Bagchi said: "We are in touch with various stakeholders."
New Delhi earlier this week advised Indian nationals in Afghanistan to return home on commercial flights. Separately, it has withdrawn all Indian nationals from its consulate in Mazar-i-Sharif as "a temporary measure" in view of the security situation there. Bagchi added there is no plan to shut the Indian embassy in Kabul.
Meanwhile, he issued a veiled call on Pakistan to play a constructive role in Afghanistan.
"For peace in Afghanistan, we need to ensure that the external malign influences there do not happen," Bagchi said in an indirect reference to India's nuclear-armed neighbor.
"We would certainly hope that all parties, including regional countries there, understand this and work toward a situation where Afghans can have a process that is owned by them, controlled by them, led by them," he said, adding: "We certainly don't think that currently that's the situation."
Taliban fighters record a message after seizing Pul-e- Khumri, capital of Baghlan province, in this image taken from social media. © Reuters High-level U.S. engagement continues. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday spoke with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani. While stressing that the U.S. remains invested in the security and stability of Afghanistan, Austin said "a unified Afghanistan and cohesive ANDSF is the linchpin of peace and security in the face of a heavy fighting season," according to a Pentagon statement, making clear the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces were responsible for ensuring stability in the country.
To date, the Afghanistan withdrawal has received strong support in the U.S. An early-July poll conducted by The Hill, a Washington-based media company, found that 73% of respondents supported the plan to leave the Central Asian country after two decades of military involvement.
The U.S. has spent over $2 trillion in the country, and more than 2,400 military personnel have died there since 2001, according to estimates from Brown University's Costs of War Project.
The New York Times reported Thursday that American negotiators led by chief envoy Zalmay Khalilzad are trying to extract assurances from the Taliban that they will not attack the U.S. Embassy in Kabul if it ever wants to receive foreign aid from Washington.
Al-Jazeera reported that the Afghan government has proposed a power-sharing arrangement with the Taliban in exchange for a cessation of attacks. But the possibility of a military takeover of Kabul has not been ruled out.
German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said Thursday that if the Taliban were to take over the country, Berlin would halt financial aid. Special envoys from countries including the U.S., China, India, the U.K. and Pakistan met in Qatar on Thursday to assess the state of intra-Afghanistan negotiations. They released a statement reaffirming they will not recognize any government in Afghanistan that is imposed through the use of military force.
But key countries close to the Taliban, mainly Russia and Iran, did not take part in the talks, raising uncertainties about the international response.
The United Nations Security Council is discussing a draft statement that would condemn Taliban attacks on cities and towns as well as threaten sanctions for abuses and acts that risk Afghanistan's peace and stability, Reuters reported, citing diplomats familiar with the matter.