OTTAWA — Statistics Canada will reveal this morning how ongoing tariffs and the start of the Iran war affected the economy in the first quarter of the year.

The agency’s initial estimates suggest the economy rebounded somewhat after a mild contraction in the final quarter of 2025.

StatCan estimated last month that the economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.7 per cent in Q1, while a Reuters poll of economists expects growth was a bit below that mark at 1.5 per cent annualized.

StatCan said the economy was growing modestly in January and February but its flash estimate for March anticipates momentum stalled.

The manufacturing sector led growth in February but the industry’s overall output is still well below year-ago levels as automakers and other firms grapple with the weight of U.S. tariffs.

StatCan suggested last month that seasonal maintenance in the oil and gas sector weighed on the industry in March even as the war in Iran sent global energy prices soaring.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 29, 2026.

Craig Lord, The Canadian Press