NEW DELHI -- In the two weeks since the Taliban have taken over Afghanistan, the daily lives of its residents have transformed into a stark and uneasy limbo. Narcotics will likely continue to lace the economy as the country recedes into isolation from the international community.
"Nobody wants to go outside because they are afraid of the Taliban," said a 50-year-old taxi driver in Kabul. "There's no work and no money."
Because of bank closures, people have been unable to withdraw money, yet inflation has soared 20%, the cabdriver said.
"I've been told not to come to work," said a woman in her 50s living in the city. "I'm afraid things will stay this way for half a year."
The World Bank announced last week that it was freezing financial support for Afghanistan, citing deep concerns over the prospects for women now that the Taliban control the country. The International Monetary Fund is also pausing disbursement of economic aid, as the Taliban are not recognized by the international community.
These are formidable challenges. International aid accounts for more than 60% of Afghanistan's state budget. A sense of foreboding loomed over the country's economy even before the Taliban returned to power.
Afghanistan's new leaders have sought to paint a rosy picture. The Taliban would build the economy once the conflict has subsided, the Islamist group's spokesman said in an Aug. 17 press conference. Afghanistan would be a "narcotics-free country" whose economy would revitalize through tapping natural resources instead, the spokesman added.
The pronouncement ran counter to a report released by the United Nations in June detailing how the Taliban are funded.
"The primary sources of Taliban financing remain criminal activities, including drug trafficking and opium poppy production, extortion, kidnapping for ransom, mineral exploitation and revenues from tax collection in areas under Taliban control or influence," the report stated. Estimated income from those activities runs as high as $1.6 billion a year.
Afghanistan's nominal gross domestic product stood at roughly $19 billion last year, according to a World Bank estimate. The Taliban's income would account for less than 10% of GDP. A lack of support from the international community could fuel a reliance on the shadow economy.
What is more, Afghanistan is considered one of the world's leading producers of opium poppy, which can be refined to heroin. Last year, 224,000 hectares of opium poppy fields stretched across the country, according to a survey by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime.
The scale has nearly tripled in the two decades since the final years of the Taliban's previous rule. As many as 22 of Afghanistan's 34 provinces are significant poppy-producing regions, the UN drug report found.
Last year alone, an estimated 6,300 tons of opium were produced under the Taliban's watch, valued at about $350 million.
"All regions except the Eastern region saw an increase in opium poppy cultivation in 2020," the UN Office on Drugs and Crime said.
If the Taliban struggle to rebuild the economy, it is anticipated the new government would rely on opium poppies as a lifeline.
Meanwhile, the Taliban face highly uncertain prospects for developing natural resources. Afghanistan is home to rich deposits of copper, iron, mercury, rare earths and marble. Untapped commodities are said to be worth up to $3 trillion.
"Most mineral extraction in Afghanistan is either illegal or unregulated," the United States Institute of Peace said in an analysis.
"For the Taliban, extracted minerals are the second-largest revenue stream after narcotics," the think tank noted. "Annual revenue is estimated to be between $200 [million] and $300 million per year -- at least 300 times more than reported government revenues from mineral extraction."
The Taliban have repeatedly said they will establish a healthy working environment for Afghans. Few are placing credence in that pledge.
"Opium poppies are easier to cultivate than wheat or other crops, so I plan to keep growing them from now on," said a farmer in Afghanistan's southern Uruzgan Province. Such assessments suggest the Taliban are certain to face turmoil in managing the economy.