Suga denies a snap election that would delay LDP leadership race

TOKYO -- Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga said Wednesday morning that he doesn't plan a snap election that would delay the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's leadership race. He told reporters, "Considering the situation of coronavirus infections, we are not in a position to dissolve the Diet. I am not thinking about postponing the LDP's presidential election."

Suga is set to announce a new leadership team for the LDP as early as next week, taking a risky bet in the run-up to the party's presidential election in a bid to shore up flagging public support.

This prompted many to speculate that Suga would dissolve the lower house right after the reshuffle because that would push back the LDP race, currently scheduled for Sept. 29, and let Suga silence the voices saying he first needs to be replaced as party president in order to win an election.

However, there were also growing voices that the LDP's presidential election should be held as scheduled.

According to his aides, a reshuffle had already been on the table but he decided to advance its schedule as his handling of the pandemic and the Tokyo Olympics pushed his approval rating to record lows. He will replace the party's secretary-general, a post held for the past five years by party kingmaker Toshihiro Nikai, one of Suga's few supporters in the party.

LDP policy chief Hakubun Shimomura will also be replaced.

Nikai agreed to step aside to quell discontent among younger LDP members. Suga had hoped to win reelection unopposed in the party race, but former LDP policy chief Fumio Kishida has already announced his plans to challenge Suga.

Some are also calling for a cabinet reshuffle, which would be a highly unlikely move so close to the LDP leadership election. But if cabinet members are appointed to top party posts, Suga will have to fill those vacancies.

Several senior officials in the Suga government also said Tuesday that dissolving the lower house in mid-September for a snap election is also "an option."

Nikai's unusually long tenure has emerged as a flashpoint in the LDP leadership race. Dissatisfaction with Nikai has been growing within its largest faction, where former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe still holds sway, as well as among the faction led by Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso.

Kishida, Nikai's rival, hoped to tap such discontent within the party, with a proposal to limit senior officials except the president to three consecutive one-year terms. But Suga preempted Kishida's attack by choosing to replace Nikai.

Suga had initially planned to announce a new secretary-general after the party vote is formally announced on Sept. 17. But Nikai, who himself had been looking for the right time to step down, urged Suga on Monday to revamp the LDP leadership sooner to regain public support.

"A personnel reshuffle is the only way out of this tough situation," Nikai told Suga.

Although formal campaigning for the LDP vote will not start for another few weeks, the race to head Japan's longtime ruling party has already kicked into gear with Kishida announcing his candidacy.

This complicates the leadership reshuffle, since Suga will need Kishida's approval to appoint any members from the latter's faction. Suga will also need to consider his appointments carefully to ensure that they do not draw further backlash from the party.

The biggest question in the upcoming reshuffle is who succeeds Nikai. Kishida said there is "no possibility" that he would take the role, even if Suga offered.

Suga's job approval has been in free fall, the reason many younger LDP members are concerned about heading into a general election under Suga's leadership.

In a weekend Nikkei poll asking who should be the party's next leader, top picks included regulatory reform minister Taro Kono, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi. Suga was the No. 1 choice among LDP supporters, but those disapproving of the current cabinet appeared to strongly favor rivals.

Members of parliament account for half the votes in the LDP leadership election. If no candidate wins a majority in the first round, the party heads into a runoff where each national lawmaker and each prefectural branch gets one vote.

Suga himself does not belong to any of the LDP's powerful factions, meaning that he lacks a built-in support base within the party. It remains to be seen whether benching one of his biggest backers in the LDP so close to the vote will pay off.