It seems hell hath no fury like a commodity DRAM chip spurned. As HBM continues to hog DDR wafers, the supply of DRAM might plummet as much as 70 percent in 2027, according to the CEO of Apacer, which echoes recent pronouncements from the CEO of SK hynix.

The CEO of Apacer expects the supply of commodity DRAM to fall off the proverbial roof in 2027, echoing pronouncements from the CEO of SK hynix, who thinks "next year will be the worst year in the industry's history from the supply perspective"

According to the CEO of Apacer, C.K. Chang, DRAM makers might only release 30 percent of their 2026 volumes next year , leading to a 70 percent year-over-year supply crunch.

This echoes recent comments by SK hynix CEO, Kwak Noh-jung, who has projected that tougher times lie ahead even after the memory-related upheaval seen so far, suggesting that 2027 "will be the worst year in the industry's history from the supply perspective."

Do note that a recent Business Times report disclosed that memory-related wafer supply is expected to increase by around 12 percent annually in 2027-2028, but around half of this supply will be consumed by HBM.

As such, Samsung will ship around 12 billion GB of HBM in 2026, ramping it up to 20 billion GB in 2027. Meanwhile, SK hynix will supply 18 billion GB of HBM in 2026 and 24 billion GB in 2027.

Consequently, non-HBM DRAM bit growth will be confined to an annual rate of 15 percent in 2027-2028, when demand is expected to grow by 22 percent.

To quantify capacity growth, Samsung's P5 Fab 1 will come online by July 2027, while the P5 Fab 2 and another facility at Yongin will start producing by 2029. For SK hynix, the Yongin Y1 fab will come online in February 2027, while the Y2 will do so in H2 2028.

Meanwhile, SK hynix noted during its recent earnings call:

"We expect memory demand in general to keep expanding, not only for HBM, for AI, compute, but also for server DRAM to support Agentic AI and high performance, high capacity NAND to accommodate the expansion of AI services, as well as growth in data."

Perhaps the only real reprieve for the consumer electronics industry will come from CXMT's commercialization of its 3D DRAM tech , where memory cells are stacked vertically to increase capacity, rather than concentrating on etching increasingly smaller horizontal features with the help of EUV machines. This approach maximizes raw bit density and storage capacity without shrinking horizontal nodes.

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