‘Negotiation fatigue’ risks stalling South China Sea code of conduct progress

Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs Theresa Lazaro meets China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the sidelines of the Asean Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Pasay last Wednesday. Photo: EPA
A Chinese coastguard ship fires a water cannon at a Philippine vessel, supposedly in the South China Sea, in this video screengrab released last Thursday. Photo: Jay Tarriela/X/Reuters
A China coastguard ship sails near Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea on June 18. Photo: Kyodo

Asean ’s optimism in concluding a long-awaited code of conduct (COC) in the South China Sea by the end of the year is not shared by observers who highlight that significant gaps remain in perspectives between the bloc and China, particularly between Beijing and the Philippines.

Any consensus on the code is likely to be broad and symbolic, and while “negotiation fatigue” could set in, it is still important to keep dialogue flowing, according to analysts.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations and China were making “good progress” on negotiations over the matter, Philippine Foreign Secretary Maria Theresa Lazaro said.

During a media briefing at the 59th Asean Foreign Ministers’ Meeting last Thursday, Lazaro said all parties intended to finish the code “within the year”.

In a joint communique issued on the same day, Asean ministers said they were pleased with the “sustained positive momentum” in talks and welcomed the “significant progress achieved”.

“We looked forward to continued efforts in endeavouring to conclude the negotiation of an effective and substantive COC that is in accordance with international law,” the document stated.