Brown’s Cook Islands Party is on track to win a fifth consecutive term in government. According to preliminary results from last week’s general election, the party will obtain 18 seats – up from its previous 12 – in the 24-member parliament, giving it a three-quarter supermajority after three independent MPs agreed to join.

The result carries weight beyond the self-governing Polynesian nation, whose people hold New Zealand citizenship and whose economy relies heavily on tourism, imported fuel and development funding.

Given New Zealand’s long-standing role in its defence and external affairs, the biggest issues going into the poll were the Cook Islands’ decision to deepen ties with China, as well as questions about whether Brown’s government had done enough to consult Wellington on deals covering infrastructure, tourism and seabed mineral research.

A defence and security declaration signed with New Zealand in April appeared to help ease those concerns, analysts said, allowing Brown to limit the political damage before last Wednesday’s election.