Goldman Sachs upbeat on wealth outlook despite worries over China’s tax scrutiny

SCMP | Aug. 19, 2026, 5 a.m. | Original

Robust fee growth tipped for Hong Kong, Singapore banks as mainland Chinese clients’ offshore allocations driven by diversification: report

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People walk past buildings in Central, Hong Kong. Photo: Sun Yeung

Goldman Sachs has remained upbeat about offshore wealth management despite concerns over Beijing’s tighter scrutiny of cross-border money flows.
The Wall Street investment bank forecast wealth fee income at Standard Chartered and HSBC to grow 30 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively, in 2026, while projecting 16 to 25 per cent growth for Singapore banks.

“We continue to believe offshore wealth allocation by Chinese clients is driven primarily by diversification benefits and access to a broader investment universe, rather than tax considerations alone,” wrote Melissa Kuang and Wayne Wang, Singapore-based analysts at the bank, in a report on Monday.

Concerns over the sector’s outlook have intensified following developments involving offshore trusts, overseas insurance income and other cross-border wealth activities in mainland China.

Beijing has stepped up tax collection on gains from offshore investment products, including family trusts , in recent months. Headlines over a 20 per cent levy on overseas insurance policies – which mainland authorities said were not new – stirred market nerves in Hong Kong and raised worries about the potential impact on wealth management businesses.

Goldman’s analysts viewed the measures largely as clarification and enforcement of existing rules rather than new restrictions.

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