Despite the booming demand for its products and aggressive plans for capacity expansion, China's CXMT is unlikely to make a significant dent in the global DRAM market, according to a research report from South Korea's Hanwha Securities. CXMT has managed to carve a place for itself in the global memory market as booming AI demand stretches the production capacity of key players. Its products are primarily targeted towards domestic Chinese firms, with multiple reports having indicated that Apple is also interested in buying the firm's products.
The ongoing boom in the memory market has led to a change of fortune for CXMT. Data shows that the firm became the fastest-growing memory manufacturer in the world in the second quarter in terms of revenue growth. CXMT's Q2 revenue grew by 716% annually fueled by domestic demand and capacity expansion.
However, even as CXMT's role in the global memory market increases and the firm plans capacity expansion, it might not be enough for the Chinese firm to make a sustained impact on the global DRAM market. So says analysis from Hanwha Securities, which takes a look at the projected sufficiency ratios for the industry in 2026 and 2027.
According to the details, 2026 will be a good year for CXMT when it comes to contributing to the global memory supply growth. The data shows that while CXMT accounts for 6.7% of the global DRAM market, when it comes to growth, the firm accounted for 11.3% of the overall growth. However, Hanwha adds that the firm's contribution to the growth in 2027 will slow down due to the bump in capacity by major players, Samsung, SK hynix and Micron.
In 2027, CXMT will account for 6.9% of the growth, says Hanwha. The firm adds that despite the capacity additions and the contribution from CXMT, the shortage in the DRAM market will continue to persist. The firm adds that in 2026 and 2027, the global DRAM market will grow by 22.4% in 2026 and 24.1% in 2027.
Hanwha also calculates the sufficiency ratio for the DRAM market. The ratio measures the percentage of demand that supply can meet. With CXMT in the mix, Hanwha outlines that the ratio will be -9.4% in 2026 and -5.6% in 2027. However, without the Chinese firm, the ratio drops to -15.5% in 2026 and -12% in 2027.
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