NEW DELHI -- As Prime Minister Narendra Modi this week heads to a Quad summit in the U.S., where COVID-19 vaccines are expected to top the agenda, India says it will resume exporting coronavirus jabs in the quarter starting next month thanks to a significant production jump.
India, the world's largest vaccine maker, suspended overseas shipments in April as it fought its second COVID wave. The nation intends to fully immunize its eligible adult population of over 940 million by the end of the year.
"In October, [the government] is expected to receive more than 300 million vaccine doses" from manufacturers compared to 260 million this month, Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya said on Monday, adding that production will further increase in the coming months as more companies such as Zydus Cadila and Biological E bring their vaccines to market.
With the production upswing, India will have an excess of vaccines that it can send overseas, Mandaviya said. "We will help other countries and also fulfill our responsibility toward COVAX in the fourth quarter [of this year]," he said, referring to a global initiative whose mission is to guarantee all countries fair and equitable access to vaccines.
With domestic pharmaceuticals ramping up production, the country's inoculation drive has picked up speed in recent weeks. More than 7.4 million doses were administered across India on each of the first 15 days of September, compared with about 6 million a day last month and 4.34 million per day in July.
The announcement that India will resume exports came hours before Modi starts his four-day visit to the U.S. for the first in-person Quad summit.
At their virtual summit in March, the leaders of India, Japan, Australia and the U.S. -- a grouping initially committed to ensuring open waterways in the Indo-Pacific region -- announced an array of initiatives, on vaccines, infrastructure, emerging technologies and climate change.
"The leaders will take stock of progress made since the March summit, especially in the COVID-19 vaccine partnership," Indian foreign secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla told reporters on Tuesday. The partnership is an effort to pool financial resources, manufacturing capabilities and logistics expertise to boost vaccine production and distribution.
Shringla also noted India's domestic production has more than doubled since April. "With the availability of more vaccines, we have the opportunity to export," he said, adding that shipments are conditional "on the availability of vaccines for our domestic requirements."
He went on, "[W]hatever surplus is available ... we will be in a position to share that surplus with our neighbors and with our extended neighborhood and others that require those vaccines."
As India seeks global recognition for its domestically made COVID vaccines, it is also lobbying for Western pharmaceuticals to license their vaccines. India would like to obtain licenses so it can help supply the world, said Pankaj Jha, a professor of strategic affairs at the O.P. Jindal Global University. New Delhi is also keen to receive Pfizer vaccines, especially for Indians younger than 18, Jha said.
India is currently vaccinating its population with Covishield, the local variant of the AstraZeneca vaccine manufactured by the Pune-based Serum Institute of India; Covaxin, a domestically developed vaccine produced by Hyderabad-based Bharat Biotech; and Sputnik V, from Russia.
India "has to resume exports if it wants the U.S." and other key nations to listen to its plea for licenses, Jha told Nikkei Asia.
On Sept. 8, COVAX said it expects to have access to 1.4 billion vaccine doses this year, down from its June forecast of 1.9 billion. India's export ban partially explains the lower projection.
"Only 20% of people in low- and lower-middle-income countries have received a first dose of vaccine, compared to 80% in high- and upper-middle income countries," it said in a statement.
Some Indian health experts say the country may not be able to fully inoculate its entire adult population by December, though Jha argues that the current pace is impressive.
Workers from Afghanistan's health ministry unload boxes of Covishield, a vaccine donated by India's government, in Kabul, Afghanistan, on February 7, 2021. © Reuters "India is not alarmingly short of vaccines," he said, pointing out there are also many people, especially seniors, who do not want to take the vaccine. "Even if the country reaches 80% of the target by December, it would be in a comfortable position" in regard to its domestic drive and export ambitions.
With over 820 million doses administered nationwide, more than 60% of India's adults have received at least one shot and over 20% have had a second.
Before it halted exports in April, India had provided some 66.4 million doses, mostly Covishield but also Covaxin, to over 90 countries .
According to CARE Ratings, Indian vaccine manufacturers are set to grab domestic as well as export opportunities in the coming months as their manufacturing capacities expand.
In a note issued on Aug. 16, CARE Ratings wrote that monthly manufacturing capacity was around 130 million to 140 million doses. It added that the range is expected to reach around 360 million to 370 million by the end of December. The note goes on to say there are vaccine export opportunities in parts of Africa, Asia and South America, and that some countries' booster plans will create further demand.
Taking the domestic and export markets together, CARE Ratings said Indian vaccine makers can expect about $10 billion to $11 billion worth of sales opportunities during the next three years.