TOKYO -- The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election is shaping up to be a tight race among the top three contenders, a Nikkei/TV Tokyo survey has found, making it increasingly likely that the winner will be decided through a runoff.
Former LDP policy chief Fumio Kishida led in lawmaker support, with vaccination czar Taro Kono right behind him and Sanae Takaichi trailing in third place, according to the survey conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Each lawmaker has one vote in the Sept. 29 election to pick the party's next president, for a total of 382. Rank-and-file members account for another 382 votes. If nobody wins a majority outright, the race will move on to a runoff between the two top contenders.
Kishida had backing from nearly 30%, or over 100 Diet members, according to the poll. In addition to the 46 members of his own faction, Kishida has garnered support from within other leading blocs like the Hosoda, Aso and Tanigaki factions.
Kono, who is also minister in charge of administrative reform, was close behind at more than 20% of lawmaker support. He was backed by half of the Aso faction, to which he belongs, as well as the majority of the Ishiba faction and part of the Nikai faction. He was popular among unaffiliated lawmakers as well.
Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba and Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, all high-profile figures who are not running in the race, also support Kono.
Takaichi, a former minister for internal affairs and communications, does not belong to any faction but is backed by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Half of the Hosoda faction, to which Abe used to belong, have rallied behind her, as have conservative unaffiliated lawmakers. Overall, she had the support of more than 20% of lawmakers.
From left to right: administrative reform minister Taro Kono, former LDP policy chief Fumio Kishida, and former internal affairs ministers Sanae Takaichi and Seiko Noda. (Photo by Kento Awashima) Seiko Noda, another former internal affairs and communications minister, has struggled to gain ground beyond the 20 endorsements she received to launch her bid. She was the last to join the race, announcing her candidacy the day before official campaigning began.
Kono was popular among younger lawmakers, receiving support from Diet members in their first to sixth terms, while Kishida led the pack among old-timers in their seventh term and beyond.
Roughly 90 lawmakers were undecided or had not responded as of Wednesday.
Given how close the race looks, it is unclear whether Kishida or Kono could win a majority even if one of them gest 80% of support from undecided lawmakers. Candidates need at least 55% of rank-and-file member votes in order to win outright.
If the election goes into a runoff, the top two candidates will vie for a total of 429 votes: 382 from lawmakers and 47, or one per prefecture, from rank-and-file party members. This will give rank-and-filers less say in a runoff, though lawmakers could change their own votes based on the outcome of the first round.
The winner of the LDP race will be elected prime minister in a special parliamentary session in early October.