TOKYO -- Two days before Fumio Kishida was elected president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the party's two biggest power brokers met for a discreet conversation.
Former economic policy minister Akira Amari, a Kishida backer, visited former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at his parliamentary office Monday afternoon.
Abe was supporting his protege Sanae Takaichi in the race but praised Kishdia in the meeting, saying he "has become tough" during the campaign. "Mr. Kishida is going after Mr. Kono in debates," said the former prime minister, referring to Reform Minister Taro Kono.
"People in the Takaichi camp know my thinking," Abe added, implying that they will back Kishida, instead of Kono, in the even of a runoff between the two.
"That settles it," Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso remarked when Amari informed him of the conversation. If Kishida initially placed second, Takaichi's camp would switch their votes to him in the second round, giving him the lead over Kono.
The alliance ended up bringing together the Nos. 1 and 3 candidates in the election on Wednesday, as Kishida edged out Kono in the first round by a single vote.
Kishida then went on to decisively defeat rival Kono in the runoff. He will be elected prime minister in parliamentary session Monday.
Things looked very different a month ago. As young LDP lawmakers fretted that the party could not compete effectively in the upcoming general election with unpopular Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga at the helm, Kono was the favorite to take the reins.
Polls by Nikkei and others asking about the "most suitable" person to lead the country put Kono at the head of the pack. After Suga announced his resignation on Sept. 3, Kono, a member of his cabinet, officially threw his hat in the ring.
Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, quietly met with longtime Abe rival Shigeru Ishiba to seek his endorsement for Kono. In an earlier call with Koizumi, Suga had said that with Koizumi's and Ishiba's backing, Kono could win the race if he got 70% of votes from party members and supporters.
Kono's camp believed that a head-to-head matchup with Kishida would be decided in the first round, where half the votes would be allocated to the party's rank and file.
It was then that Abe -- who wields substantial clout in the Hosoda faction, the LDP's largest -- began throwing his weight behind Takaichi as she considered a run, angling for a runoff that would put about 90% of votes in lawmakers' hands.
Abe advised Takaichi on everything from appointments to her election committee to "drawing her eyebrows straighter." He placed calls to Diet allies, local lawmakers and leaders of supporter groups.
"He got serious," an aide said, "even though Kishida was supposed to be the candidate he really had in mind."
From left: Seiko Noda, Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Fumio Kishida, Sanae Takaichi and Taro Kono during the LDP election on Sept. 29. The entry of Noda and Takaichi into the race threw off Kono's hopes of a first-round win against Kishida. (Photo by Koji Uema) Kono's camp, still counting on his public popularity, remained bullish. When the Hosoda faction said it would back Takaichi or Kishida, Koizumi retorted that "this makes it clear that they will support anybody but Kono."
Abe responded by redoubling his efforts. "When Ishiba supports Kono, or Shinjiro criticizes the Hosoda faction, it only makes us more determined," he said to aides.
This came alongside a shift in the party's mood. The LDP's approval rating in a Sept. 9-11 Nikkei poll jumped 9 percentage points from August to 48%. Junior lower-house lawmakers yet to weather tough reelection bids came to believe that the general election would be fine no matter who led the party.
When former Internal Affairs Minister Seiko Noda announced her run on Sept. 16, a day before the deadline, Kono said to Aso that "we won't be able to avoid a runoff now." With a first-round majority looking impossible, his campaign would have to change tack.
Koizumi moved to take action, and was pictured more frequently with Ishiba. But some in Kono's camp were irked about being ordered around by someone who was not even a senior member of the candidate's election committee.
And when Kono and Koizumi -- who do not usually reach out to other Diet members on a day-to-day basis -- sought out support, the sudden approach was met with a chilly reception from some lawmakers.
Meanwhile, Takaichi's campaign gained momentum, to the point that some speculated she could compete with Kishida for second place. Some in Kono's camp, seeing a runoff with Kishida as a likely loss, even considered having some Kono voters shift to Takaichi to make her the runner-up instead.
The campaign held on to the faint hope of winning 50% to 60% of votes from party members and appealing to lawmakers not to go against the will of the public.
On the weekend before the election, Abe, seeing the disarray on Kono's side, stopped lobbying on Takaichi's behalf. "No one thought she'd be within reach of a triple-digit" vote total, he said. "The rest is up to her own efforts."
The following day, the LDP's Takeshita faction said that Kishida had the most support among its members. LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai's faction said it would let its members vote freely.
Factional support for perceived front-runner Kishida snowballed, and he defied expectations to take a narrow lead in the first round of voting. Kono won fewer than half of rank-and-file votes and less support from Diet members than Kishida or Takaichi.
Once Suga's resignation allayed concerns about the general election, some lawmakers began moving away from Kono over concerns that he would be too radical a reformer. Picking Kishida would leave the party's power structure led by the "three A's" -- Abe, Aso and Amari -- secure and keep the status quo intact.