Chetan Ahya is chief Asia economist for Morgan Stanley.

The tone in my recent meetings with investors in Asia has been all too familiar. Our constructive views -- both cyclically and structurally -- are greeted with caution.

Continuing or even tighter restrictions in parts of the region have left them concerned that these measures may not be fully relaxed even as vaccinations reach high levels.

Growth concerns on China have also become the overarching issue for investors, as they fret over the production and power cuts, the impact of slowing property market activity, as well as the effects of China's broad regulatory reset.

I do understand why investors are cautious -- Asia's growth outperformance in the initial stages of the pandemic has given way to underperformance. Led by China, Asia was the earliest region to stage a V-shaped recovery. Economic growth climbed back quickly to pre-COVID levels by the third quarter of 2020.

Real exports recovered faster than in previous cycles, reaching 5% above their pre-COVID path. As ever, the recovery of exports had strong spillover effects into Asia's capital expenditure cycle, and Asia's investment has already moved to 2% above pre-COVID trajectory.

But over the last two quarters, momentum has slowed. The emergence of COVID variants, a delay in the start of Asia's vaccination drive and continued stringent measures to contain outbreaks of the disease in several large economies have led to tighter restrictions on mobility from time to time.

Consumption has been constrained and is the only component of gross domestic product that remains below where it was before the onset of the pandemic. Recognizing the challenge, policymakers have accelerated vaccination efforts. Over the last three months, vaccination rates have jumped from 32% to 69% of Asia's adult population.

People wait to be vaccinated at Bang Sue Grand Station in Bangkok on Sept. 24: policymakers have accelerated vaccination efforts.   © Sipa/AP

At the current pace and with vaccine supplies continuing to stream in, we expect that 10 out of 12 economies will have achieved 80%-plus vaccination rates for the adult population by the end of this year.

At that point, we expect a number of countries to modify their COVID management strategies and begin transitioning toward the acceptance of COVID as an endemic problem. Authorities in Singapore, South Korea and Australia have laid out such road maps.

The pressure to move away from strict containment measures stems from the fact that they have constrained activity in labor-intensive sectors, weighing on employment. The lifting of restrictions will help to ensure that production activities can be sustained, easing the supply disruptions and shortages of parts that had arisen due to the pandemic.

We expect a broad-based recovery to take hold starting early next year as policymakers -- now comfortable with progress on vaccinations -- start moving toward a full reopening that reaccelerates consumption growth.

Meanwhile, the overhang on China's near-term growth trajectory should also be lifted. First, we expect additional policy easing from here as policymakers look to defend their growth target, which we expect to be at 5.5% for 2022. 4Q21 GDP growth is tracking at around 4%, which is relatively low compared to the growth target.

Moreover, the cumulative effects of the recent measures will have an impact on the labour market, bringing social stability issues to the fore, and hence will prompt the onset of easing measures.

Second, the recent issues of production / power cuts and slower mortgage lending are directly linked to the need to meet this year's targets and exhaustion of quotas. These will be reset with the new year, thereby lifting the constraints on economic activity.

As growth re-accelerates in a broad-based manner, GDP should exceed its pre-COVID path meaningfully early next year, and Asia should once again be a growth outperformer.

We also see good reasons to be bullish on Asia over the medium term. When export growth languished between 2010 and 2016, policymakers had to rely on leverage to drive growth, giving rise to macro-stability concerns.

In this cycle, the U.S. is assuming the mantle from China of leveraging up -- more so in the public sector -- and supporting global growth. We expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep real rates low for some time to achieve its goal of maximum employment.

This will help drive a continued widening of the U.S. current-account deficit, providing a tailwind to Asia's exports. Asia's market share in global exports has now resumed its upward trajectory, which was interrupted from mid-2018 due to trade tensions.

The reason why these features of the global recovery are so important to Asia is because Asia's growth engine remains inherently one that is propelled by exports.

With this backdrop, a virtuous feedback loop of strong external demand and positive spillover effects to capital expenditure will continue to take hold, engendering a self-sustaining cycle. In some ways, Asia's growth story in this cycle will resemble 2003-07, with productivity playing a larger role while leveraging takes a back seat.

In truth, this dynamic was already emerging toward the end of 2016, as Asia had effectively adjusted after the misallocation of capital following the global financial crisis.

Strong growth during 2017 and into 2018 was interrupted by the onset of trade tensions, followed by the pandemic. We think that once the COVID cloud lifts, the structural story where productivity takes the lead will be evident.