Kishida sharply breaks from reform to redistribution in key speech

TOKYO -- Breaking with his predecessors, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida put income distribution at the heart of his inaugural policy speech Friday, emphasizing such measures as aid to struggling groups while avoiding such themes as deregulation.

In stark contrast to previous Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who used the word "reform" 16 times in his first policy speech before the parliament, Kishida did not say the word once.

The difference underlines Kishida's call to pivot toward a "new capitalism" and away from the neoliberal orthodoxy that has prevailed in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party since Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. It also reflects hopes in the party that these policies will appeal to voters in the upcoming general election.

The prime minister instead made "distribution" one of the big key words in his speech, focusing on redistributing wealth by investing in the middle class. He called growth and distribution strategies the twin "wheels" of his economic vision, while emphasizing that "without distribution, we cannot have the next wave of growth."

Kishida directed his cabinet on Friday to draw up economic stimulus measures quickly. The aim is to have a package ready after the election and pass a supplementary budget by the end of this year.

Fiscal spending is central to Kishida's distribution plans. The prime minister promised financial support for households with children, contract and temp workers, and others, as well as aid to businesses regardless of region or industry.

There remains concern that if the new administration depends too heavily on just the sheer size of spending, it risks driving up debt while still leaving the economy stagnant.

Suga and predecessor Shinzo Abe combined heavy fiscal spending with ultraloose monetary policy, lifting total long-term debt on the national and local levels to more than 1.2 quadrillion yen ($11 trillion at current rates) from 932 trillion yen at the end of fiscal 2012.

The economy did not grow as quickly. Japan's ratio of debt to gross domestic product climbed more than 30 percentage points between fiscal 2012 and fiscal 2020 to 225%. The lack of headway on growth strategies, the third of the "three arrows" of Abenomics, is cited as the reason.

Kishida said he plans to "drastically increase support in the tax system" for companies that increase wages, in a bid to boost the share of income that goes to labor.

But even with wide-ranging incentives, the government cannot force companies to increase pay or invest more, and it will be difficult for many to take such steps without first improving their profitability. Tokyo will need to create an environment to facilitate both consumers and businesses contributing to economic growth.

Bolstering labor force productivity is one important step. Japan's GDP per hour worked came in at $48 last year, nearly 30% below the Group of Seven average of $65, according to data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The U.S. has remained about 50% ahead of Japan for the past decade.

Policies like regulatory reform may promote productivity-boosting investments and draw capital to Japan. Encouraging shifts into industries with high added value and supporting worker reskilling for a more digital economy will be important as well.