Tobias Harris is a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, an independent, nonpartisan policy institute. He is the author of "The Iconoclast: Shinzo Abe and the New Japan."

At a press conference following the dissolution of Japan's House of Representatives last week, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida offered stark words about the choice facing voters in the Oct. 31 general election.

"The age is at a turning point," Kishida said. "Which way it moves will determine the future of Japan." While Kishida has every reason to draw clear distinctions between his party and the opposition, there is truth in what the prime minister says.

The parties' manifestos reveal that the Liberal Democratic Party-led coalition and the opposition bloc led by the Constitutional Democratic Party appear to be offering voters a more meaningful choice between competing visions for the country's future than they have in years.

But with the CDP running too few candidates to be a viable contender for power in this election -- only 214, less than the 233 needed for a majority in the House of Representatives -- voters will not really be making a choice about the future direction of Japan.

Instead, this election, the first since former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe left office in 2020, looks set to be a referendum on Abe's legacy and the post-Abe LDP. That may not help Kishida build the healthy majority that he will need to set up a lengthy tenure as prime minister.

The public appears to be particularly dissatisfied with the extent to which Kishida, despite promising change, depended on Abe to win the LDP's leadership, with recent polls indicating that a majority of voters do not want the new government to carry on the "Abe-Suga line."

The perception that Kishida is merely the moderate face of a government dominated by the LDP's conservatives likely contributed to the new government's underwhelming approval ratings, and the party's manifesto did little to dispel this impression.

For example, the manifesto does not reference any of Kishida's signature pledges during the leadership campaign, such as an "income-doubling plan," and scaled back his promise to redistribute income as a part of a "new style of Japanese capitalism."

Instead, the LDP explicitly endorsed the three arrows of Abenomics and lifted language about "crisis management investment" and "growth investment" entirely from the platform of Sanae Takaichi, the Abe-backed rival whom Kishida edged out in the recent LDP leadership ballot and who is now the head of the party's policy affairs council.

Pledges to increase defense spending and offer more explicit support for Taiwan reveal the extent to which the party's hawks are setting the new government's policy agenda.

Lawmakers throw their arms in the air in a customary "banzai" as the House of Representatives was dissolved in Tokyo last week.   © Kyodo

The impression that Kishida's promises of change are window dressing for a ruling party still dominated by Abe creates an opportunity for the opposition to eat into the LDP's parliamentary majority and weaken its hold on the legislative process.

Not only have the CDP and the Japanese Communist Party cemented an electoral alliance, but the CDP is also offering a vision for the Japanese economy that would go much further than Kishida's "new-style" capitalism, such as its promise to shift to a new welfare approach where the government would provide generous support for health care, housing, education and other basic services for lower-income households, financed in part by higher taxes on the wealthy and corporations.

The party's manifesto only begins to scratch the surface on the implications of how such a shift would change the way Japanese people live, work, learn and form families. The CDP is drawing an even clearer contrast with the LDP on social values, pledging to create a society more tolerant of diversity and more committed to equality.

However, despite the public's dissatisfaction with the "Abe line" and the opposition's efforts to provide a clearer alternative, it is possible that the outcome of the election may be no different than during the Abe years.

Kishida is bracing for a setback -- he has ruled out the possibility of winning a supermajority and said he would consider a simple majority for the coalition a victory -- but the ruling coalition can afford to lose roughly 40 seats before its ability to control the Diet is weakened.

Meanwhile, the opposition has the same problem it had during the Abe years. With a smaller base of support than the ruling coalition -- which depends on a reliable "organized vote" to win -- it can only make significant gains if independents turn out in significant numbers.

During Abe's tenure, they mostly stayed home, enabling the ruling coalition to win historically large majorities on the back of historically low turnout. Early signs suggest that turnout could again be low. A recent NHK poll found that only 52% of voters said that they definitely plan to vote. Back in 2017, that number was 53%, and the actual turnout ended up being only 53.68%.

Therefore, while the opposition's electoral coordination may unseat some vulnerable LDP incumbents, it will be difficult for the CDP and its allies to deliver a decisive blow to the ruling coalition unless voter enthusiasm surges during the short campaign.

Despite the opposition offering the clearest contrast with the LDP in well over a decade, it is possible that a plurality of voters will stay home again, effectively opting for a continuation of the status quo under a new leader.