TOKYO -- The 12-day campaign for control of Japan's government got underway on Tuesday, with some 1040 candidates vying for 465 seats in the Oct. 31 lower house election.
The ruling coalition, led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) under new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, has set a target of keeping its majority. The bloc faces a test from the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), which is largely putting up a unified front with the smaller Japanese Communist Party (JCP) and two other groups.
The election will hinge on government's handling of the pandemic, as well as the previous nine years of an LDP-led government that tried to jolt the nation out of deflation with "Abenomics" pro-business policies such as corporate tax cuts, free trade, and aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus.
The focus of the upcoming election will be on whether the LDP, which now has 276 seats, will be able to keep a single-party majority by winning at least 233 seats, Masamichi Ida, professor of political science at Meiji University, told Nikkei Asia. Without a majority, the LDP would become more dependent on junior coalition partner Komeito for passing legislation.
The LDP is pushing the idea that the election is about defending democracy from "communism," pointing out that the CDP is cooperating with the JCP -- a center-left or left-wing party despite its name -- in small district elections. The opposition is pointing to sleaze in the government's ranks, which has led to the resignations of four LDP lawmakers in the past year.
"If the CDP wins, the communists will become part of the nation's decision-making process," warned Akira Amari, the LDP secretary-general. The CDP counters that the JCP would only cooperate from outside a government formed by the CDP.
The tight campaign period, coupled with the existence of many small opposition parties, means voters are likely to vote on their broad judgement of the government's performance during the pandemic, Ida said.
COVID countermeasures and economic rehabilitation are by far the biggest concerns among voters, according to a Nikkei opinion poll conducted Oct. 4-5. Other key issues include the aging population and fiscal sustainability.
All the main parties are promising generous spending programs and tax cuts, blurring the boundary between the ruling camp and the opposition.
People at an election rally in Tokyo's Shinjuku district on Oct. 19. (Photo by Yo Inoue) Kishida pledges to raise wages for health care workers and caregivers, and give tax breaks for companies that increase wages.
"Trickle-down doesn't happen naturally," Kishida said in a debate on Sunday, adding he will ask the private sector to raise wages for workers. "We should first grow our economy before talking about redistribution," he said.
Kishida supports a gradual increase in minimum wages, now at an average 930 yen ($8.13) per hour across Japan, but says they should not be raised too quickly to avoid damaging small businesses.
Komeito, the LDP's coalition partner, proposes to distribute 100,000 yen ($875) in cash to every child, while Kishida says that cash handouts should be focused on those in need.
The opposition CDP promises to give a one-year income-tax waiver to anyone whose annual income is less than 10 million yen ($87,500) and 120,000 yen in cash handouts to low-income families. It also plans to halve the consumption tax rate to 5% for one year.
That support package is estimated to cost 18 trillion yen or about 18% of the nation's annual budget, but CDP leader Yukio Edano said on Sunday that "a certain amount of fiscal spending is justified to resuscitate the economy." The CDP also calls for raising minimum wages 60% to 1,500 yen.
Edano argues that the spending should be paid for by raising taxes on large corporations and the wealthy. His party also calls for progressive taxation on corporate income.
Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks in Fukushima Prefecture on Oct. 19. (Photo by Arisa Moroiyama) On COVID, the LDP promises to start preparing booster shots, speed up approval for treatment, and higher spending on drug research and development. The CDP pledges to make testing free and introduce tougher border restrictions by requiring a 10-day self-isolation in a hotel for anyone arriving in Japan.
The opposition is pushing hard on social issues. The CDP promises to allow married couples to have different surnames, and has vowed to introduce a bill guaranteeing equal rights for gay people. The JCP also puts gender at the center of its policy platform, pledging to eliminate wage gaps between men and women.
LDP's Kishida said he would consider different surnames for women, but the party walked back his claim and refrained from including it in its policy platform -- reflecting a sharp divide between the prime minister and conservatives in his party.
"Promoting progressive policy on gender and other social issues is a good way for the CDP to gain support from young voters," said Meiji University's Ida.
On energy, the ruling LDP promises to restart nuclear power plants, saying it is necessary to achieve the government's carbon neutrality goal by 2050. This is despite public skepticism since the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi plant in 2011.
The CDP says it wouldn't allow the construction of new nuclear plants or an expansion of existing plants. Both the CDP and the JCP have proposed a deeper 50%-60% cut in carbon emissions by 2030, compared with the LDP-led government's goal of a 46% reduction.
Kishida, a former foreign minister, is from the dovish wing of the LDP and will attempt to bring the party back to a more centrist position on foreign and defense policy, according to Ida. Under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan expanded defense spending and took a tougher line on China.
Reflecting the influence of the hawkish wing of the LDP, its platform includes an expansion of defense spending by noting that U.S. allies in Europe are aiming to spend 2% of gross domestic product on defense -- double Japan's current level.
The CDP says that its foreign policy will be grounded on the U.S.-Japan alliance and it will support the open Indo-Pacific vision. But it also says it will be more involved in the running of the alliance, and will call for a reduction in the U.S. military's footprint in Japan.