ASEAN summits bring wins but leave big questions on Myanmar, unity

JAKARTA/SINGAPORE -- The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has ended a string of summits and meetings -- dialogues that brought some tangible results but little progress on the crisis in Myanmar as the group tries to maintain its relevance in the shadow of the U.S.-China rivalry.

Brunei Darussalam's official news release on Thursday emphasized agreements struck over three days, including the ASEAN Shield, "which aims to create a more coordinated and responsive" bloc against emergencies and disasters. Around 100 documents were adopted or noted by the ASEAN leaders, according to Sharon Seah, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a Singaporean think tank.

The biggest wins could be stronger ties with both China and Australia, with the upgrading of relations to Comprehensive Strategic Partnerships. Statements from bilateral summits between ASEAN and the two countries called these moves "meaningful, substantive and mutually beneficial," without giving details. Seah said the deals signal "that these two relationships are relatively well-developed and expected to grow closer in the future."

Yet, in their summit among themselves, ASEAN leaders struggled to make headway on the elephant in the room -- the political turmoil in Myanmar -- six months after reaching a "five-point consensus" in Jakarta to restore peace in the country where the military ousted Aung San Suu Kyi's elected government.

The grouping did take the unprecedented step of not inviting Myanmar's top military leader Min Aung Hlaing to the talks, which earned praise from some experts. "I was impressed with Brunei's organization of the online summit and the strong statements that the leaders issued," said Bill Hayton, associate fellow with the Asia-Pacific program at the U.K.'s Chatham House. "ASEAN's patience with the Myanmar junta has finally run out. The junta has only itself to blame for the breakdown in relations."

But the next step remains very much up in the air. Bryan Tse, country analyst at The Economist Intelligence Unit, said, "We do not expect substantive or dramatic action from ASEAN beyond a reiteration of its commitment to the five-point plan and displeasure over the current situation in Myanmar."

Tse added that "ASEAN is unlikely to kick Myanmar out of the organization or recognize the opposition as the legitimate government, but the junta's presence at ASEAN events could continue to be curtailed."

During the meetings, some heads of state warned that the Myanmar issue threatens ASEAN's standing .

"The lack of progress in Myanmar has put ASEAN's credibility into question," said Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte. "How we respond collectively will either affirm ASEAN's relevance or reveal our impotence. It is up to us to prove that ASEAN is not just a 'talk shop.'"

Protesters in Mandalay burn an ASEAN flag in June: The unresolved political crisis in Myanmar continues to loom over the bloc, known for its "noninterference" principle.   © Reuters

The chairman's statement noted that while the nine participating ASEAN countries continue to respect the bloc's principle of noninterference, they "reaffirmed ... the need to strike an appropriate balance to the application of ASEAN principles on the situation in Myanmar." Nevertheless, the statement added that Myanmar "remains a member of the ASEAN family" and that the country "needs both time and political space to deal with its many and complex challenges."

If the Myanmar situation is throwing ASEAN's credibility into doubt, larger geopolitical forces have clearly unnerved some ASEAN capitals. The emergence of two U.S.-led security alliances -- the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with Australia, India and Japan, and the new AUKUS, with Australia and the U.K. -- have sparked concern over the bloc's unity and "centrality" in the region.

"It is possible that all the talk of the rise of the Quad and the risk to ASEAN centrality has encouraged the ASEAN ministers to take stronger positions on controversial issues, in order to demonstrate their relevance," Hayton said.

Both the U.S. and China have looked to increase their influence in the region, be it through vaccine diplomacy or the promise of expanded economic relationships. The presence of Joe Biden at this week's summits was politically significant in its own right: This was the first time in four years that a U.S. president took part in talks with ASEAN.

Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong summed up the delicate balance facing ASEAN: "Singapore, like many countries in the region, wants to have good relationships with both the U.S. and China. We neither wish to see the region becoming an arena for rivalry and conflict, nor do we want to be forced to take sides."

However, comments from Malaysia during ASEAN's summit on Tuesday indicated that leaders were unable to agree on a unified stance on AUKUS , which has made several Southeast Asian countries uneasy due to the grouping's plans to share nuclear submarine technology with Australia. Malaysia and Indonesia argue the arrangement could fuel a regional arms race.

"Malaysia finds it regrettable that there was a lack of unity on issues that could impact regional peace, stability and security, namely AUKUS and [the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone] treaty," said Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob.

Brunei Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, who chaired this week's summits, told reporters on Thursday, "We hope any new security partnership would contribute constructively to regional peace and stability and complement the regional architecture," while also emphasizing unity by reiterating that Myanmar is an "integral part of the ASEAN family."

Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen accepts the ASEAN chairmanship for 2022 at a closing ceremony on Oct. 28. (Courtesy of Brunei government)   © Reuters

That unity, or lack thereof, could be further put to the test under the next ASEAN chairmanship of Cambodia in 2022. It is no secret that the Cambodian government is close to China . Under the country's chairmanship back in 2012, ASEAN foreign ministers failed to issue a joint statement -- for the first time ever -- over disagreements on how to deal with Beijing's claims to the disputed South China Sea.

As he took over the chairmanship from Brunei in a closing ceremony this week, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen hit the now-familiar notes of unity and centrality.

"Cambodia will focus on strengthening the ASEAN centrality and ASEAN unity," both in terms of regional mechanisms and cooperation with external partners, he said. "Also, ASEAN must be resilient and strong against the pressures and influence stemming from rising geopolitical competition, transnational crime, terrorism, climate change, infectious disease, etc., to ensure our way forward in peace, security and prosperity."

But Seah of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute suggested concerns about Cambodia's leadership are likely to linger. "Memories of the 2012 failed joint communique have not quite faded away. Understandably there's a sense of wariness," she said.

On the other hand, Cambodia may have something to prove.

"It bears to remember well that ASEAN countries hold sovereignty close to their hearts," Seah added. "Cambodia will want to demonstrate that it maintains strategic autonomy and will not want a repeat of 2012."