BANGKOK -- From his perch in self-imposed exile, former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is reaching out to the country's young voters through social media, setting the stage to test his political brand as talk swirls in the halls of power of an early general election for Thailand in 2022.
Last Friday, he targeted voters in the northeast of the country through another round of informal chatter using a virtual room on Clubhouse, the audio-based social media application. The 72-year-old billionaire engaged with young participants from the rural region, where he has enjoyed deep electoral support, about options to boost their business ideas and incomes.
"Robotics is the future for everything in the economy," advised the former telecommunications tycoon to a clutch of young entrepreneurs who sought his advice on the direction of their small and medium-sized enterprises. Thaksin also touched on his policy staples from the past: ways to solve the low prices of rice, rubber and cassava, crops that are the mainstay of the agrarian economy in Isaan, as the northeast region of Thailand is also known.
"Clubhouse is an ideal way to promote his brand and his vision of the country to go forward," a confidant of Thaksin told Nikkei Asia. "It has been a freewheeling exchange, even with critics asking hostile questions, and it has an audience from the 20 to 35 age group."
Thaksin's Clubhouse foray, which began in earnest in February this year, has seen him take on a non-Thai moniker, "Tony Woodsome", and even make an effort to sound younger following his birthday in July, when he launched his "Thaksin 72, Tony 27" campaign. It was a playful switch of his age to suggest his avatar is young at heart.
Protesters in July 2020 defy anti-COVID restrictions and gather en masse to demand the government's resignation. © Reuters This bid for the youth vote was amplified on Thursday, after his youngest daughter, 35-year-old Paetongtarn, was chosen to head the Inclusion and Innovative Advisory Committee of Pheu Thai, the country's largest opposition party, at its general assembly in the northeastern city of Khon Kaen. Her appointment affirmed the continuing hold that the Shinawatra family -- one of Thailand's most influential political clans -- have on pro-Thaksin parties.
The spread of Thaksin's shadow over Thailand's political landscape has begun to unnerve sections of the country's ultra-royalist and ultra-conservative establishment who currently hold power, according to political insiders. The tension has brought into stark relief the country's deeply polarized politics, which was triggered after Thaksin's twice-elected government was ousted in a 2006 military coup.
At the time, Thaksin headed the newly formed Thai Rak Thai Party, which had won successive landmark elections on policies that delivered on social welfare and boosted the grassroots economy. His subsequent flight into self-imposed exile as a fugitive from the law made him a contentious figure for the anti-Thaksin camp, propelling Thailand into bouts of bloody street clashes between his pro-democracy camp and the anti-democracy camp of his adversaries.
A member of the "red shirt" movement holds a picture of ousted Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra during a rally in Nakhon Pathom Province, on the outskirts of Bangkok, in May of 2014. © Reuters But his political base, drawn from the rural heartlands and urban pockets, remained loyal to the Thaksin brand during subsequent elections, even after controversial rulings by the supposedly independent judiciary had dissolved pro-Thaksin parties. These pro-Thaksin parties managed to form governments in 2008 and 2011 after winning general elections, with the latter enabling his younger sister, Yingluck, to become prime minister until 2014. Her Pheu Thai-led government was overthrown in another military coup in May of that year, cheered on by the ultra-conservatives and ultra-royalists.
But the last general elections in 2019, which saw the country transition from five years under junta rule to the current military-backed government, exposed a new, generational fault line. The impressive showing by the newly formed, pro-youth Future Forward Party signaled the arrival of a sizable constituency of young voters. The 81 parliamentary seats that the FFP won placed it third after Pheu Thai, which won 136 seats, and the pro-military Palang Pracharath, which won 116 seats. Pheu Thai was unable to form a government and notch up a fourth successive win for a pro-Thaksin party, because of election laws skewed to ensure a pro-military party rules.
The electoral math mirrored the power that young voters had in 2019, when 75% of the country's 51.2 million registered voters cast their ballots. Those aged between 18 to 25 years accounted for 7.3 million of all registered voters, while senior citizens aged 61 years and above accounted for 10 million of the voters. At the next general elections, officially scheduled for 2023, an estimated 3 million first-time voters will be added, further swelling the size of the youth vote bank.
Future Forward Party leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit speaks at the party's headquarters in Bangkok on February 21, 2020. © Reuters Yet seasoned observers believe that Thaksin might not find it easy to woo these young voters, many of whom have been attracted to an ideology-driven politics that the FFP championed at the last elections and that its successor, Move Forward -- formed after another controversial court ruling to dissolve the upstart FFP -- is carrying on. In their crosshairs is reform of the country's entrenched, ultra-royalist power structure, including the politically sensitive position of the monarchy.
"Thaksin doesn't want to touch this sensitive issue, nor does Pheu Thai," said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University, based in northeast Thailand. "Thaksin may have a problem here, because Move Forward's message has penetrated into youth populations in urban and rural areas."
Such reluctance will limit Thaksin's reach into the market share of the youth vote, added Titipol. "So in terms of strategy, Thaksin hasn't brought in any new thinking to his political brand; the focus is only on economics."