NEW YORK -- The solid win by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's coalition in the general election Sunday has been welcomed in Washington as a sign of continuity. But focus is quickly shifting to the size of Japan's defense budget, which the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has vowed to increase.

As U.S. President Joe Biden struggles to fund his domestic agenda, hope is growing that such allies as Japan can significantly raise their defense spending to better share the burden.

But the gap between the hopes in Washington and a realistic pace of increase by Japan may surface toward next summer as discussions intensify over Japan's budget for fiscal 2023.

As the election results were pouring in Sunday, Natsuo Yamaguchi -- president of Komeito, coalition partner to Kishida's LDP -- was asked on Fuji TV his party's stance on the LDP's suggestion that Japan may increase its defense budget from the current scale of around 1% of gross domestic product to as much as 2%.

"While it could be possible to strengthen the defense budget, I don't think a sudden doubling will win the understanding of the public," Yamaguchi said.

Komeito chief Natsuo Yamaguchi, a coalition partner to Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, said Oct. 31 that the Japanese public would not support suddenly doubling the defense budget. (Photo by Uichiro Kasai)

Elbridge Colby, former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development and the principal author of the 2018 National Defense Strategy, said such an incremental increase will not be enough to deter China's actions. "How open is the public to a Japan dominated by China?" he asked. "This is the very real risk of a too-slow defense increase from Japan."

"We are all behind the curve on this. The LDP has put 2% in the party plank but when is that going to happen, like 30 years from now? We don't have that much time," Colby said.

The Biden administration is "slapping backs on the Japan relationship, but the U.S.-Japan relationship is in crisis," he warned. "The People's Liberation Army is a this-decade problem."

Patrick Cronin, the Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute, said: "Both sides of the aisle in Washington want to see Japan do more, including pay more for defense. That's a continuation of the [former President Donald] Trump policy, but in a more diplomatic way."

Cronin noted that the 2% figure is not a request that came from the Biden White House, but one that the LDP put into its policy platform of its own volition. "There's plenty of room in between 1% and 2% for Japan to do more," he said.

"Realistically, the Biden administration would just like to see Japan contribute more, above 1%, and I don't mean one hundredth above 1%, but something in between 1% and 2%, at least, would be a good start," Cronin said.

The debate over increasing Japan's defense spending gained traction after hawkish candidate Sanae Takaichi, now the LDP's policy chief, proposed doubling the level to 2% of GDP in her campaign for the party's presidential election in September. Takaichi's surprise strong showing in that race pushed Kishida to write a similar, albeit more nuanced, pledge into the party platform for Sunday's election.

Promising to "significantly strengthen our own defense capability" and swiftly formulate a new national security strategy, as well as specific plans to acquire major defense equipment, the party plank stated: "With an eye toward the defense spending goals of NATO countries (more than 2% of GDP) we will aim to increase defense-related spending."

Japan's Ministry of Defense has requested 5.4 trillion yen ($47 billion) for fiscal 2022. An increase to 10 trillion yen, as Takaichi has proposed, would mean adding more than $40 billion.

In a webinar hosted by the Center for American Progress on Monday, Tobias Harris, the center's senior fellow for Asia, said that "you had to really look at the fine print about how they said 2%" when the LDP formulated the policy pledge.

"It was not 'we're going to double defense spending,'" he said. "It was 'with an eye towards what NATO countries are doing.' So they left themselves a lot of wiggle room. Clearly this is going to be something that plays out over time."

He said the real battle will come next summer: "Given the calendar, as far as budgets are concerned, the upper house election in July of next year, followed by the budgetary process going into full swing ... it'll be interesting to see what happens to the defense budget next year."

Taro Kono, chairperson of the Liberal Democratic Party's public relations headquarters, reveals an election poster featuring Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Oct. 11 at LDP headquarters. (Photo by Yo Inoue)

In the same webinar, Sheila Smith, a senior fellow for Asia-Pacific studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said Kishida "may be a bit more tempered and wait until after the upper house election to move forward with some of these more difficult defense issues."

Nicholas Szechenyi, deputy director and senior fellow of the Japan chair at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, said: "Observers in Washington will look at this selection and interpret it as a sign of continuity."

"Kishida, in his policy platform, embraced [former Prime Minister Shinzo] Abe's 'free and open Indo-Pacific' agenda, which is animating U.S. strategy in Asia," he said. "It's a sign that the United States and Japan can move forward on a variety of fronts."

Asked to grade the election outcome on a scale of 10, with 10 being the most favorable, Szechenyi gave an 8. "The other two is really about the upper house election next year," he said.

"If the government gets to the upper house, then I think Japan's foreign policy trajectory is going to be very predictable for years to come. And that's reassuring for the U.S.," Szechenyi said.

In a commentary published Monday by CSIS, Szechenyi and fellow analysts Michael Green and Yuko Nakano wrote that "for now, Kishida has momentum, but with one more big test around the corner," noting the 2022 upper house election, after which he would not have to hold an election for another three years.

Hudson's Cronin also pointed to the poor showing of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party, which lost seats despite being expected to make significant gains. This is blamed partly on CDP leader Yukio Edano's choice to join hands with other opposition parties, including the Japanese Communist Party -- which officially opposes the alliance with the U.S. -- to have a single opposition candidate in various districts to increase the chances of victory.

"The U.S.-Japan alliance is, for now, the only choice and the alternatives are not nearly as attractive," Cronin said.

"For as long as we can see, it seems like this is the best option and Japan really needs for the alliance to work, for its interests and for the interests of the region," he said.