WASHINGTON -- China is on track to quintuple its nuclear arsenal by 2030 to at least 1,000 warheads, the Pentagon said Wednesday in its annual report on Beijing's military power, markedly upgrading last year's assessment.
This year's edition of "Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China" also highlights Beijing's improving space and cyber capabilities as the People's Liberation Army advances toward its 2027 modernization goals, by which time the report said the PLA could have as many as 700 deliverable nuclear warheads.
"The PLA has fielded, and is further developing, capabilities to provide options for [China] to attempt to dissuade, deter, or, if ordered, defeat third-party intervention during a large-scale, theater campaign such as a Taiwan contingency," the report said.
The 2020 edition projected only a doubling of Chinese nuclear forces over the following decade from its estimated 200 warheads. In a briefing for journalists Tuesday, a senior defense official here cited Beijing's buildup in missiles and delivery systems to support the revision.
While the U.S. had 3,750 nuclear warheads as of September 2020, according to the State Department, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Russia caps the number that Washington can actually deploy at 1,550, although some warheads fall outside this limit. China, which is not a party to New START, is set to come closer to this cap.
The report sounded the alarm on China's investment in delivery platforms for nuclear weapons, such as bombers and submarines. The apparent aim is to ensure that Beijing can strike targets in the continental U.S., eluding American missile defense systems, to dissuade Washington from intervening in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea.
The report indicated that China may have established a "nascent 'nuclear triad,'" with air-launched and submarine-launched ballistic missiles alongside its ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, giving it greater resilience in the event of a strike against its nuclear arsenal.
This summer's reported testing of Chinese nuclear-capable hypersonic weapons also furthers the goal of gaining the ability to reliably strike American targets. The weapons can fly at more than five times the speed of sound and fly on an irregular trajectory, both of which would make them extremely difficult for current missile defense systems to intercept.
The DF-17 medium-range missile can be equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle -- China's first operational weapon of this type. © Reuters Further nuclear expansion by China could bring into question the effectiveness of the U.S. nuclear umbrella on which Japan has relied to deter attacks. The threat of retaliation may become less credible if Beijing sees Washington hesitating to defend its ally for fear of a return strike on its own territory.
Washington will ensure that American allies and partners have "ample opportunities to share their views and concerns with us," the senior defense official said. The U.S. is expected to consult closely with Japan, South Korea and European countries on the nuclear posture review being undertaken by President Joe Biden's administration.
"We would like to have greater insight into their intentions" for the nuclear buildup, the official said of China. With tensions still running high and dialogue between defense officials scarce, Washington cannot get a full picture of Beijing's plans or policies, feeding suspicion that risks fueling an arms race.
The report signaled deep concern about the scenario of a conflict surrounding Taiwan, explicitly mentioning the Chinese anti-access/area denial strategy. China is deploying a large number and variety of missile systems that enable it to attack warships or fighter jets that venture too close.
The PLA last year began fielding the DF-17, a medium-range ballistic missile with a hypersonic glide vehicle -- China's first operational hypersonic weapons system, according to the report. It also noted a growing inventory of DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles, which are capable of reaching Guam.
China has accelerated the "mechanization, informatization, and intelligentization" of its armed forces, according to the report, pointing to technological development and integration under its military-civil fusion strategy, as well as anticipating further use of artificial intelligence.
"If realized, the PLA's 2027 modernization goals could provide Beijing with more credible military options in a Taiwan contingency," the report warned.
It also emphasized China's "greater global role," including delivery of coronavirus vaccines abroad, stating that the PLA last year "continued to normalize its presence overseas and build closer ties to foreign militaries, primarily through COVID-19-related aid."
Beijing has "likely considered" military facilities in Cambodia, Myanmar, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, the United Arab Emirates, Kenya, the Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola and Tajikistan, in addition to its existing base in Djibouti, according to the report.
"A global PLA military logistics network and PLA military facilities could both interfere with U.S. military operations and support offensive operations against the United States as [China's] global military objectives evolve," the report said.
On cyberwarfare, the report predicted that "the PLA's focus on an integrated approach to the cyber domain using advanced technologies likely will lead to the PLA improving its ability to conduct cyber operations over the next several years."
China is also enhancing its capabilities in electronic warfare and counterspace fields, which aim to deny access to such crucial assets as satellites, it said.