TOKYO -- Japan Airlines is on track to soon log a monthly profit for the first time since the global spread of the coronavirus, President Yuji Akasaka told Nikkei, as the country starts opening back up to international travel.
"We will roughly break even in June and will definitely see positive earnings before interest and taxes in July," Akasaka said.
The flag carrier last booked a monthly operating profit back in February 2020, when it was still using Japanese accounting standards. As of last November, JAL had aimed to return to the black this March, only to miss that target amid the rise of the omicron variant of the virus behind COVID-19.
JAL's bullish outlook comes as travel demand recovers more quickly than was expected.
The Japanese government doubled its cap on daily international arrivals to 20,000 this month. JAL had expected demand for international flights to reach around 25% of pre-COVID levels in the April-June quarter as of May. But "we're now at nearly 40% and expect to hit 50% by the end of September," Akasaka said.
Much of the demand comes from international students and businesspeople, as well as travelers headed from Asia to North America via Japan. Flights connecting Japan with North America and with the rest of Asia are now around 80% full.
Wholly owned JAL unit Zipair Tokyo is recovering faster than expected. The low-cost carrier is expected to book an operating profit for June, thanks to growing passenger numbers on North American routes, as well as sustained demand for cargo shipments.
JAL's cost-cutting efforts through the fiscal year ended in March have helped buoy its performance as well.
Meanwhile, rival All Nippon Airways is also enjoying a boost in demand. Though the carrier expects 30% or so of its pre-virus demand for international flights in July, it is seeing more future reservations for routes to Hawaii and elsewhere, as well as greater demand for business travel out of Japan.
Parent company ANA Holdings expects demand for international flights to recover to 40% or so of pre-COVID levels by the end of March 2023, but President Koji Shibata sees potential for greater improvement there.
ANA announced plans Friday to expand service on various routes between July 1 and Oct. 29, including operating five round trips instead of three between Narita Airport and Vancouver, and seven instead of five between Haneda Airport and Singapore.
In domestic flights, JAL's recovery has generally tracked its expectations. Demand is now at around 70% of pre-COVID levels, just below its forecast of 75% for the April-June period.
"Long-distance travel requiring flights has been slow to recover," Akasaka said. But with the government expanding travel subsidies in July as part of its push to promote tourism, "we'll get back up to around 80% to 90% this summer," he said.
The rapid weakening of the yen and surging fuel costs hang heavily over JAL. To soften the blow of rising fuel prices, the airline currently applies surcharges on international flights and hedges fuel costs for domestic flights.
But passenger loads for international flights "are still too low to make up for rising fuel prices" through surcharges, Akasaka said.
"Demand will take a hit if we raise our fuel surcharges," he said.
In terms of domestic flights, "we'll probably need to increase the price level we hedge at starting with fuel to be consumed next fiscal year," Akasaka said.
International tourism in the U.S. and Europe is already halfway back to pre-pandemic levels, and many Asian countries are easing travel restrictions. "The competition for tourist traffic is heating up internationally," said Akasaka, who called on the Japanese government to relax visa restrictions and scrap predeparture screenings for international arrivals.
With Russia's invasion of Ukraine, "we expect long-lasting impacts but are not considering a change" to JAL's Russian operations, Akasaka said. The airline has halted regular flights to and from Moscow and Vladivostok, but its Moscow branch remains open.
While JAL and Russia's Aeroflot have suspended joint service, they have "no plans to reconsider" their business relationship, he said.