TOKYO -- Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida looks to use the upcoming meeting on the Non-Proliferation Treaty to make a case for nuclear disarmament, seeing the 191-member framework as the best venue for the world to wrestle with the fraught topic.
Kishida will be the first Japanese leader to attend the review conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) held every five years, an event that draws mostly cabinet members from participating countries. Representatives will discuss nuclear disarmament, nonproliferation and the civilian use of nuclear energy in August at the United Nations headquarters in New York.
Kishida, who represents a Hiroshima district in parliament, regards nuclear disarmament as a policy priority. He thinks the NPT, which includes major nuclear powers, is a more effective tool than the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty or the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW).
The NPT entered into force in 1970 during the Cold War. It prohibits the possession of nuclear weapons by any country other than the five that held them at the time: the U.S., the U.K., France, China and the Soviet Union -- now Russia. Those five states also are obligated to negotiate nuclear disarmament.
The number of participants has grown to 191 countries and regions.
Kishida unveiled his vision for peace, including calls for a "nuclear-free world," at the Shangri-La Dialogue forum on Asian security in Singapore on June 10. Japan chairs the Group of Seven summit next year, and the prime minister plans to hold the meeting in Hiroshima to discuss nuclear disarmament. He will work to create international momentum during the year leading up to the summit.
Kishida plans to send Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi to a meeting in late July for the Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Initiative, a framework under the NPT. The gathering is regarded as preparation for Kishida's attendance at the NPT Review Conference.
Neither the test-ban treaty nor the prohibition treaty has been ratified by the major nuclear weapons states.
The comprehensive test-ban treaty prohibits atmospheric, underwater and underground nuclear testing, but the U.S., China, India and presumed nuclear state Israel have not ratified the treaty.
The TPNW bans the manufacturing, acquisition and possession of nuclear weapons. The U.S., the U.K., France, China and Russia oppose the treaty, insisting on nuclear disarmament talks under the NPT regime. Japan and South Korea, which are protected under the American "nuclear umbrella," also are not taking part. The standoff between nuclear and non-nuclear powers has rendered the framework unworkable.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's nuclear saber-rattling in the war against Ukraine serves as a powerful reminder of the nuclear threats facing the world. In East Asia, North Korea seeks to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles, while China expands its nuclear arsenal.
In 2021, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated that China has 350 nuclear warheads, second only to Russia and the U.S. The U.S. Defense Department expects China to have at least 1,000 warheads by 2030.
The U.S. and Russia have the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, but China is not part of this nuclear framework.
Yet the invasion of Ukraine also highlights the idea that nuclear deterrence depends on such weapons.
"It is realistic to establish a path toward nuclear disarmament and nuclear abolition based on the Japan-U.S. alliance," said Tsuneo Watanabe, senior fellow at the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. "If nuclear deterrence breaks down, nuclear weapons will be used."
"The key role is to maintain a balance between deterrence of possessing countries and nonproliferation of non-possessing countries," he said.