TOKYO -- Airlines are planning to operate less than half the number of international flights to Japan, compared with pre-pandemic levels, for the rest of the year despite the government opening the country to tourists on June 10.

The cautious outlook is a sign that Japan will face challenges attracting travelers under the current arrangements. Japan began allowing group tours from 98 countries and regions designated "blue," but the rules require tour guides to accompany visitors and make sure they follow mask-wearing and hand sanitizing protocols. All tourists are required to obtain a visa to enter the country.

In all, 61,298 inbound flights to Japan are scheduled for July to December, 58% fewer than during the same period in 2019, according to aviation analytics company Cirium. Globally, the number of scheduled flights between July and December is set to decline by 29% compared with 2019, the company said.

Japan's two biggest airlines, All Nippon Airways (ANA) and Japan Airlines (JAL), said they have yet to consider adding flights in response to Japan's tourism reopening.

"There has been no meaningful increase in bookings from overseas tour groups," a spokesperson for ANA told Nikkei Asia. A JAL representative echoed that, saying, "There is little demand for tourists under the current arrangement."

Not all airlines are so pessimistic. Singapore Airlines recently said it plans to increase the frequency of its Tokyo-Singapore flights from 14 per week to 21, starting in July. The move "is in anticipation of demand from inbound tourists as a result of Japan's gradual easing of border restrictions," a spokesperson told Nikkei Asia.

Still, Singapore Airlines' total number of flights between Singapore and Japan will remain about half that of pre-COVID levels.

The travel industry initially welcomed Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's announcement in late May that Japan would gradually restart inbound tourism, beginning June 10. The sharp fall in the value of the yen has made Japan, which recently topped the World Economic Forum's tourism competitiveness index, an even more attractive destination for overseas visitors.

But guidelines released days before the reopening called on tour operators to make sure that tourists wear masks and buy insurance, and asked them to record their customers' movements to prevent the spread of COVID-19.

A total of 61,298 inbound flights to Japan are scheduled for July to December, 58% fewer than for the same period in 2019, according to aviation analytics company Cirium.   © Reuters

"There are still some restrictions on inbound tourists, and 'normal' tourist travel into Japan is still not yet possible," said Dennis Lau, a senior aviation analyst for Cirium. "Airlines are cautious when adding frequencies, especially with the real demand still very much uncertain."

U.K.-based Inside Travel Group, which offers group tours to Japan, said inquiries surged after Kishida said: "I earnestly hope that all of you will visit Japan," during a visit to London in May. The company will begin its first tour since the pandemic on July 2, and plans to have more later this year.

But James Mundy, the company's public relations manager, said 80% of the company's tours are not fully escorted, meaning they are not allowed under the current rules.

"Although the majority of our customers will wait and travel as soon as they can, there are many that will not and may choose to go elsewhere -- to a country that is very much accepting of foreigners and seen as welcoming [them] without restrictions," Mundy said.

Kishida recently unveiled plans for a nationwide domestic travel promotion from early July until August, hoping to stimulate consumer spending during the summer. The government plans to allocate 800 billion yen ($5.9 billion) for the promotion, which includes discounts on tour packages and coupons that can be used at restaurants and tourist attractions, Nikkei reported June 17.

Ongoing COVID restrictions in some parts of Asia have also clouded the outlook for Japan's inbound tourism. Flights from China, where overseas travel demand has plunged due to strict COVID-prevention measures, are set for the steepest declines. Scheduled flights from Shanghai Pudong Airport for July to December are down 82%, year on year, while those from Beijing Capital International Airport are down 83%, according to Cirium data.

Incoming flights from Hong Kong, another major source of tourists to Japan, are projected to decline 56%.

On the other hand, flights from the U.S. are scheduled to fall at a much slower rate, and some locations will see flights increase. From San Francisco, 1,114 flights are scheduled, 21% more than in 2019. But airlines say this is mainly due to stronger demand for business travel, as well as the growing popularity of Japan as a transit hub for people from the U.S. traveling to other parts of Asia.

Scheduled flights to Japan between July and December

Source: Cirium