With shipments totaling 68.5 million units in the third quarter of 2023, the global PC market managed to outperform expectations. But that volume was still down 7.2% compared to the same quarter in 2022, according to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker. Despite the PC market surpassing initial forecasts, both driving and inhibiting factors influenced this performance. First, the increased volume can partly be attributed to inventory restocking, mostly on the consumer side. Second, there was a notable effort to address anticipated cost escalations, such as expected increases in India import duties. Although these duties were later suspended, such concerns nonetheless led to the channel absorbing more units than likely necessary. Finally, further tightened IT budgets led business PC units to underperform against an already conservative commercial forecast.

Given current conditions and a tenuous macroeconomic environment, IDC has lowered its forecast for the worldwide PC market. 2023 shipment volume is now expected to decline 13.8% compared to 2022, which itself declined 16.6% over the previous year. Two consecutive years of double-digit year-over-year drops is an unprecedented trend in the PC market but will likely contribute to a recovery thereafter. Despite the short-term challenges, IDC continues to expect a market rebound in 2024 and beyond with many factors converging within the next two years. A few of the main drivers include: