Notwithstanding US President Donald Trump ’s “America first” iconoclasm with his territorial ambitions and obsession with tariffs , powerful dynamics are at play which may result in a less dystopian outcome.
First, notwithstanding strong bipartisan consensus regarding China as America’s primary “existential threat”, relations are becoming more nuanced. China is now so deeply embedded in the interlocked global supply chain that no amount of “ de-risking ” is likely to turn the table.
Regardless of tariffs, most jobs are realistically not coming back to the US due to higher costs, not to mention hollowed-out modes of production after decades of deindustrialisation in favour of capital markets.
Meanwhile, many Chinese manufacturing enterprises are setting up foreign-registered operations abroad. For example, Geely , one of China’s largest car manufacturers, has taken control of the London Electric Vehicle Company, which now produces electric versions of London’s popular black cabs.
With Elon Musk as a possible intermediary, China may help create many joint-venture manufacturing jobs in the US and Europe, helping to reset China’s relations with the West.