“The exercises have grown in scale, drawing ever closer to Taiwan, further compressing Taiwan’s strategic space and reaction time, with key ports and potential landing points now within [Beijing’s] grasp,” mainland military analyst Fu Qianshao said.

More importantly, the operations had strengthened the PLA’s ability to counter external intervention, extending far beyond Taiwan itself, sending a message to the US and its regional allies, including Japan, he noted.

Getting closer

Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said there had been a gradual “iteration” in PLA drills, with more elements and increasing complexity added over time.

“What we’re seeing is a very deliberate attempt to simulate scenarios as close as possible to real-world conditions. In other words, it’s not just about posturing or signalling. The PLA is clearly working to refine and enhance its ability to carry out these operations if necessary.”