Nintendo forecasts 15 million Switch 2 sales in console's first year

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In brief: Although the original Switch sold incredibly well and has become one of the best-selling consoles of all time, Nintendo expects the Switch 2 to match its predecessor, at least during the launch period. The company estimates sales of 15 million units by the end of its fiscal year 25/26.

Despite launching earlier in the year (March 2017), the original Switch sold 15.05 million units in its first business year on sale, a record for a console. For comparison, the PlayStation 5 managed 7.8 million units, but it was hindered by pandemic-era shortages, while the PlayStation 4 reached 7 million units. Moreover, both consoles launched in the month of November.

RankConsoleLaunch dateFiscal year-endUnits sold in that fiscal yearSource
1Nintendo Switch3 Mar 201731 Mar 2018 (Nintendo FY 2017)15.05 millionNintendo earnings Q4 FY 2017
2PlayStation 512 Nov 202031 Mar 2021 (Sony FY 2020)7.8 millionSony earnings Q4 FY 2020
3PlayStation 415 Nov 201331 Mar 2014 (Sony FY 2013)7.0 millionSony earnings Q4 FY 2013
4Xbox Series X|S10 Nov 202030 Jun 2021 (Microsoft FY 2021)4.5 million (est.)IDC / Ampere estimates
5Nintendo Wii19 Nov 200631 Mar 2007 (Nintendo FY 2006)5.84 millionNintendo earnings Q4 FY 2006

Nintendo made the forecast during its recent results for the year ending March 2025. It also predicted that it would sell 45 million games during its next financial year.

Demand for the Switch 2 has already been immense. Nintendo President Shuntaro Furukawa said in April that pre-orders in Japan alone amounted to more than 2.2 million . That exceeded Nintendo's ability to deliver the consoles, and even exceeded the amount Nintendo expected to supply during a second lottery round that will take place after launch.

It's the strong early demand that has led many to believe 15 million Switch 2 sales is a conservative estimate, but Nintendo is likely playing it safe in light of the unpredictability of the US tariffs and how they might affect the economy – Nintendo pushed its original April 9 preorder window to April 24, citing ongoing tariff uncertainty as the reason for the delay.

As for Nintendo's previous financial year, the company sold another 10.8 million Switch units, a 31.2% decrease year-on-year. That brings its lifetime sales to 152.12 million, meaning it is just under 2 million units short of surpassing the Nintendo DS as the second-best-selling console of all time.

Depsite being in its ninth year and its successor releasing soon, Nintendo hopes to sell another 4.5 million original Switches in the coming financial year. That would take its lifetime sales to 156 million, 4 million short of the best-selling console ever, the PlayStation 2.

Original Switch software sales also fell last year, down 22.2% YoY to 155.41 million units, which included 2.97 million units of bundled software. The company's net sales, meanwhile, were down 30.3%, while net profits were down 43.2% to 278.8 billion yen ($1.9 billion).

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