TOKYO -- Pakistan, the world's fifth-largest country, has traditionally "looked West," but as it moves closer to China and tries to transform into a Belt and Road Initiative success story, it is pinning hopes for the project on conflict resolution and peace across the region.
At Nikkei's Future of Asia conference on Friday, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan championed the BRI, defending the initiative which has been blamed by Washington and its allies for creating debt traps for poverty-struck countries. Moreover, he opened up the China Pakistan Economic Corridor -- the "flagship" project of BRI -- to Asian investment.
"The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative. It has generated economic activity, employment and will enhance bilateral and regional trade," Khan said at the event, held in Tokyo and online through Friday. "Pakistan has invited all friendly countries to join in investing in the several economic and industrial zones being established under the CPEC umbrella."
As a fervent Cold War ally of the U.S. in the 1950s, a part of the Washington-led insurgency in Afghanistan against the Soviet Union in the 1980s, as well as a "war on terror" era major non-NATO ally in the 2000s, Islamabad has often preferred to lean toward Washington, while giving a nod to Beijing.
However, the Islamic Republic's long-standing rivalry with India, and the loss of its eastern wing in 1971 -- when East Pakistan became Bangladesh due to a civil war -- have discouraged the country from making many inroads in Asia. Looking east, past India, has been difficult for Pakistan. The long war in Afghanistan has bogged it down even more.
West Asia and beyond is where Pakistan tends to gravitate. Most Pakistani expats end up working in Saudi Arabia or the UAE. Most Pakistani trade is conducted with the European Union and the U.S.
Now, Prime Minister Khan wants to change the way Pakistan looks at Asia, and the way Asia looks at Pakistan. "Pakistan looks toward serving as a geo-economic hub connecting the economies of Central Asia, South Asia, West Asia and beyond," he said.
But Khan was quick to warn that without resolving simmering conflicts, the BRI would not achieve its goals.
"This potential cannot be fully unleashed until we resolve the outstanding conflicts and disputes in the region," he said.
As the U.S. military begins its retrograde withdrawal from Afghanistan, the U.S. Senate's Armed Services Committee has been skeptical about China, Pakistan and the BRI's presence in Afghanistan.
"China does have an interest in Afghanistan," said David Helvey, acting assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, said in response to a question about China's influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan through the BRI. He acknowledged China's economic interests and concern about extremist groups, but said, "To the extent that China's influence could be used to undermine stability instead of reinforce stability or support stability, obviously is something that we've got to be concerned about."
However, Prime Minister Khan, a long-time critic of the war in Afghanistan, was unequivocal about the necessity of both the U.S. pullout as well as the peace process.
"Pakistan has actively supported the peace process in Afghanistan. As foreign forces withdraw from Afghanistan, it is imperative to redouble efforts to promote the peace process between the Afghan parties. As I have said over the years, there is no military solution to the conflict."
Yet the longstanding concern in South Asia lies in the potential for conflict between the nuclear rivals, India and Pakistan. Born together after gaining independence from Great Britain after the Second World War, they have fought four wars and countless skirmishes, mostly over the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir.
Linking peace with India to a prosperous and connected region, Khan noted that resolving the Kashmir dispute would be key for the BRI to reach its maximum potential.
"Pakistan desires peaceful, cooperative relations with all its neighbors, including India," he said. "It is essential that an enabling environment is created for dialogue to peacefully resolve the Jammu and Kashmir dispute in accordance with the [U.N. Security Council] resolutions and the wishes of the people of Kashmir."
Laos leader seeks more vaccine aid as COVID threat rises
Laotian leader Thongloun Sisoulith says his country is optimistic about its post-COVID recovery as technology rises to the occasion, but needs more help vaccinating its 7.1 million citizens.
Formerly the prime minister, Thongloun addressed Nikkei's Future of Asia conference for the first time as president, a post he took up in March. The two-day event wraps up Friday, with speakers including Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, former Malaysian leader Mahathir Mohamad and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte.
Thongloun's appointment, two months after being named secretary-general of the Communist Party of Laos, came at a challenging time for the land-locked state.
Among the few countries not to record a COVID-19 fatality in 2020, Laos, like its neighbors Cambodia and Thailand, has experienced a recent surge in infections.
"Throughout the year 2020 we have had only 41 confirmed cases of infection and all 41 cases received full recovery, and with no fatality," Thongloun said.
"However, it is shocking that recently, the Lao PDR has experienced a spike of infected cases. As of today we have 1,751 total cases and two cases of death."
Laotian President Thongloun Sisoulith addresses Nikkei's Future of Asia conference on May 21. (Photo by Koji Uema) Although its case load remains relatively low, the country's fragile $18 billion economy is vulnerable. It contracted by 0.6% in 2020, according to the World Bank.
While its mainstay agriculture sector stayed resilient last year, growing by 2%, the absence of international visitors left a $500 million hole, while workers remittances, totaling about $100 million, were also hit.
The economic fallout contributed to Laos' growing debt problem, linked to massive loans secured to finance the construction of hydropower dams as part of plans to become a major energy exporter.
Already, the country has ceded control of its electricity grid to a Chinese company to stave off a potential default, Reuters reported last year.
The World Bank predicted Laos' gross domestic product would recover and grow by 4.9% in 2021 under its baseline scenario. But, noting the possibility of risks, such as an inability to control the domestic spread of COVID-19, it estimated just 2.8% under its downside scenario.
Thongloun unveiled a five-year plan in January that aims for annual economic growth of 4% and to improve infrastructure in the country, one of the poorest in the region.
In his speech, the Laotian leader said that the government had implemented "strict measures" to control the spread of the virus, and that he was optimistic that cooperation and technology would bring the pandemic to heel.
"Most importantly, we can see the light at the end of the tunnel, as many countries are able to develop and produce the vaccines swiftly in many different types and brands," he said.
Laos has received shots of the AstraZeneca vaccine via the United Nations-backed COVAX program. It has also been given Sinopharm shots by China.
Thongloun said Laos was grateful for outside support for its vaccine rollout, which had seen about 10% of citizens inoculated, but more help was required.
"We still need to seek further support on this matter from our friends to continue to inoculate our populations," he said.
Reporting by Shaun Turton.