TOKYO -- The Japanese government's top medical adviser on COVID-19 said holding the Olympics behind closed doors is "desirable" to tame infection risks.
Shigeru Omi, an infectious disease expert, made the observation in proposals he submitted on Friday to organizers and Japan's government. His report, compiled with 25 other medical experts, lists measures that can be taken to prevent the two-week spectacle from becoming a superspreader event.
"Allowing no spectators will be the most effective way to reduce infection risks," the report says.
It goes on to warn that these risks could be triggered by encouraging the movement of people, such as by allowing spectators into events. This could result in more severely ill patients and a heavier burden on greater Tokyo's medical systems in late August, when the Paralympic Games are set to begin, the report warns.
Omi pointed out that the Tokyo Games are an "obviously large" spectacle compared to other sports events held in Japan.
Tokyo and three neighboring prefectures could have up to 430,000 spectators a day commuting back and forth and attending Olympic events, a number that compares to the 47,000 or so fans who attend pro baseball games on any given day in the same area and the 7,000 who go to J-League soccer matches, the report says.
Omi also worries that allowing spectators to attend multiple large events every day while also asking Tokyoites to refrain from going out could send a "contradictory message," encourage people to abandon caution and make it difficult to gain their cooperation in preventive measures.
"The impact," he said, "is huge."
In the proposal, Omi presses the government to maintain the powerful measures that have been in place since late April. On Thursday, however, the government said it would lift the state of emergency in nine prefectures beginning next week but keep some restrictions in place in Tokyo, Osaka and five other areas through July 11.
"When there is a possibility that the medical system could be overwhelmed, please take powerful measures at an appropriate time," the report proposes, "and do not wait for the situation to grow more serious."
When the state of emergency is lifted on Monday, sports events will still be limited to filling half of a venues' seats or to selling no more than 5,000 tickets at bigger venues. When the quasi-state of emergency is lifted on July 11, up to 10,000 fans will be allowed into games.
Olympics Minister Tamayo Marukawa on Friday said Tokyo Olympics events will also be limited to no more than 10,000 fans.
But a final decision on the matter is expected to come later this month, during a meeting of representatives from the Tokyo Metropolitan and national governments, Tokyo 2020, and the International Olympic and Paralympic Committee.