China’s exports defy expectations in September under weight of trade war uncertainty

SCMP | Oct. 12, 2025, 11:01 p.m. | Original
China’s exports rebounded in September after hitting a six-month low in August, supported by recovering overseas demand and front-loading ahead of the “super golden week” holiday – though the latest flare-up with the United States over the weekend has renewed uncertainty over the economic outlook.

Outbound shipments rose 8.3 per cent year on year to US$328.6 billion last month, customs data showed on Monday. The figure was higher than August’s 4.4 per cent – which was the lowest growth since February – and surpassed the 5.65 per cent forecast by Chinese financial data provider Wind.

Imports in September stood at US$238.1 billion, rising 7.4 per cent year on year, an improvement from August’s 1.3 per cent and exceeding Wind’s 1.37 per cent forecast. China’s trade surplus came in at US$90.45 billion.

Analysts attributed the rebound in exports to a recovery in global manufacturing, supported by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in major economies. China’s golden week holiday in the first week of October also pulled forward shipments, boosting September’s numbers.

Wang Jun, vice-minister of the General Administration of Customs, said at a press conference on Monday that achieving stable growth in trade during the fourth quarter would require significant effort due to a challenging external environment, rising trade uncertainties and a high base from last year.

“Despite a complex external environment, China’s trade-in goods has withstood pressure and achieved steady growth, demonstrating strong resilience,” said Wang, citing industrial upgrades and the expansion in trade partners as two of the main drivers for growth.

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