Trendforce's latest investigations reveal that the global macroeconomic outlook for 2026 remains weak, with geopolitical tensions and ongoing inflation continuing to dampen consumer demand. Notably, the memory industry has begun a robust upward pricing cycle, increasing overall system costs. This forces downstream brands to hike retail prices, which adds pressure on the consumer market.

In response to these developments, TrendForce has lowered its 2026 global production forecasts for smartphones and notebooks. Smartphone output is now projected to decrease by 2% YoY, compared to an earlier estimate of a +0.1% increase. Meanwhile, notebook production is expected to shrink by 2.4%, down from a previous forecast of +1.7%. Further reductions in forecasts may occur if memory supply-demand imbalances worsen or retail prices rise more than expected.