Counterpoint Research expects memory prices to keep climbing through 2025 and into early 2026. The firm says DRAM prices could rise another 30% in Q4 2025, followed by up to 20% more early next year. This comes on top of roughly 50% price increases already seen this year. The main pressure right now is on older memory. LPDDR4 supply has tightened as manufacturers shift production to newer parts for AI hardware. That shift has created odd price gaps: DDR5 for PCs and servers is trading around $1.50 per gigabit, while DDR4, used in low-end phones and other consumer gear is selling for about $2.10. Even HBM3e is currently cheaper at around $1.70. Counterpoint expects DRAM output to grow by more than 20% in 2026 as Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, and China's CXMT ramp up production. But the bigger problem may be further ahead. NVIDIA's plan to use LPDDR in future AI systems puts it on par with a major smartphone vendor, something the LPDDR supply chain has never had to support. LPDDR also shifts error correction away from DDR5 ECC modules and onto the CPU, a change that could reshape server designs.

In a tight supply scenario, Counterpoint warns DDR5 RDIMM prices could double between early 2025 and the end of 2026. For now, the worst impact is hitting budget smartphones that still rely on LPDDR4. But analysts expect the strain to spread to mid-range and high-end devices, raising bill-of-materials costs by as much as 25% for some models. That could squeeze margins or slow shipment growth—or both. The report adds that broader risks like tariffs, geopolitics, and labor costs make the outlook even more volatile.