Since then, the same commentators who once predicted that Japan and the US would be the main beneficiaries of a surge in trade in the Indo-Pacific under the Trump administration, and march in lockstep on defence matters, are more pessimistic just over a year into his second term.

On the trade front, they have been alarmed by the tariffs imposed on Japan’s exports to the US. As for security, they fear that the US would no longer be a guarantor of Japan’s defence and that it has done little to assuage Tokyo’s concerns over China’s rise.

For Japan’s conservatives, the second Trump term has delivered a very different agenda from the one they imagined a year ago, with hopes of stability and predictability vanishing in the face of trade wars, pressure on Washington’s allies across multiple fronts and growing security tensions.

On November 7, 2024, just a day after Trump declared victory in the US presidential election, the far-right Sankei Shimbun newspaper wrote in an editorial that there were “great hopes for peace and stronger global alliances” under the Republican leader’s administration.

Predicting a “strong, trusting relationship” with Tokyo, the newspaper was confident that Trump would stand up to Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, guarantee stability in the Taiwan Strait and strengthen Nato.