Ahead of Trump Iowa speech, US soybean farmers fear China trade blowback

SCMP | Jan. 27, 2026, 9 a.m. | Original

Arkansas soybean farmer Randall Shelby says renewed US-China tensions risk pushing already struggling growers deeper into the red. Photo: Randall Shelby

in Washington

After a bruising 2025 that pushed him to the brink of bankruptcy, Arkansas soybean farmer Randall Shelby starts the new year worried that US farmers could once again be caught in the crossfire as tensions between Washington and Beijing threaten to escalate anew.

This comes as US President Donald Trump addresses farmers on Tuesday in Iowa, the United States’ second-largest soybean producer, to try to convince them that he has their best interests at heart in advance of the November midterm elections.

Shelby’s anxiety is driven by the “America first” leader’s indirect pressure on Chinese geopolitical interests through his chest-thumping over Venezuela , Iran , Greenland and Canada.

“The farmer’s fear is already there. That’s a given,” Shelby, a Trump supporter, said, talking about the possibility of Beijing’s retaliation against the US for hurting its interests.

Shelby remains sceptical that Trump’s foreign adventures will yield meaningful results; instead, he fears they will continue to erode the US share of the Chinese market, handing a permanent advantage to South American producers who are already saturating the globe with large harvests.

06:31

Soybeans: China’s new bargaining chip in trade war with US?

Soybeans: China’s new bargaining chip in trade war with US?

“Unless they’ve got enough leverage to where they can get China to be a little more agreeable. But I don’t see how, when you’ve got South America,” the 50-year-old said.

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