When the NDIS started, it was estimated it would cost about $22bn a year, with about 475,000 participants. But this financial year it has ballooned to $54bn and the scheme now supports more than 700,000 people. Those figures are expected to keep growing, which is why the government is proposing a massive reset.

"It has grown too big too fast," says Hannah Orban, Senior Associate at the Grattan Institute and co-author of a report Saving the NDIS. According to her research, each of the participants receives an average of approximately A$65,000 ($44,800) of funding per year. Some, such as those with complex needs, receive considerably more; others receive far less.

"It costs a lot of money to run it and the government really does need to introduce good reforms to make it more sustainable so that it is here for generations to come," Orban says.

Before the NDIS, disability services differed across states. There was criticism that they were underfunded and inefficient. The NDIS brought in a game-changing new system but in doing so, all the other services that previously provided support fell away.

"Once we created the NDIS, there was a retreat from other disability services, so hospitals, schools - you name it - everything became an NDIS matter," says Shorten.

In 2024, changes were made to rein in ballooning costs – overseen by Shorten who had coincidentally returned as the Minister for NDIS. But that wasn't enough. Numbers kept growing. There's been a rapid increase, especially in the number of children accessing the scheme.

There's also been criticism that people are using the NDIS to access support not originally intended for the scheme, which was designed to address the needs of those with permanent or significant disabilities. According to a study by the Australian National University , there's been a 32% increase in the prevalence of autism since the NDIS was introduced. Experts, however, say the explanation for this is simple.

"People went into the NDIS because other systems were failing," says Jenny Karavolos of Australian Autism Alliance, who in June gave evidence at a parliamentary inquiry into the cuts. It may be that autism diagnoses have increased - but Karavolos argues that's because people need to access the right support. It is not, she believes, what's breaking the NDIS.