This first half of the year we got already three camera models:

• Sony A7rVI at BHphoto , Amazon , Adorama , Fotokoch , FotoErhardt , Calumet , Clifton , WexUK
• Sony RX10V at BHphoto , Amazon , Adorama , Fotokoch , FotoErhardt , Calumet , Clifton , WexUK
• Sony FX5 at BHphoto , Amazon , Adorama , Fotokoch , FotoErhardt , Calumet , Clifton , WexUK

BUT Sony’s biggest announcement of the year usually happen in October/November (Sony A7V, Sony A1II, Sony A9III). So I wonder what kind of special model we will get this year. Let’s start with some history:

The average time between Sony camera generations is about four years, although this varies by product lineup. Below are the current Sony models that are due—or likely soon due—for an update:

• Sony RX100 VII — 7 years old
• Sony α7S III — 5 years and 11 months old
• Sony FX6 — 5 years and 8 months old
• Sony FX3 — 5 years and 5 months old
• Sony FX30 — 3 years and 9 months old
• Sony ZV-E1 — 3 years and 4 months old
• Sony α6700 — 3 years old
• Sony α7C II — 2 years and 11 months old
• Sony α7CR — 2 years and 11 months old
• Sony α9 III — 2 years and 8 months old
• Sony α1 II — 1 year and 8 months old

Sony A7sIV (30% chance this is coming in 2026)
Obviously, the Sony α7S IV would be the most logical candidate. However, I honestly don’t know if Sony will ever release this model. My guess is that the α7S IV would end up sharing essentially the same technology as the Sony FX5 , which raises the question of whether it has become somewhat redundant—especially now that the FX5 can be equipped with an optional external EVF.

Sony A6900 (20% chance this is coming this year)
Now this one is tricky: Canon Nikon and Fujfilm will all announce new APS-C cameras soon. And they could really hurt the current Sony A6700 model sales. Sony has the tendency to announce new APS-C models in late Spring or early Summer, but I don’t know if Sony can afford to let us wait that much time.

New A7c series (20% chance this is coming in 2026)
It’s hard to sell the current α7C II and α7CR now that Sony has introduced the much more powerful α7 V and α7R VI . It would make sense—and it should be relatively easy—for Sony to update both compact models this autumn. Still, the Sony rules is to update these kind of models every 4 years. This would mean the new A7c camera could be coming in 2027 only

Sony A9III (10% chance this is coming in 2026)
The Sony α9 III seems to be having a tough time gaining traction. The α1 II offers much higher resolution, while the less expensive α7 V comes surprisingly close in overall performance. The global shutter technology is undoubtedly impressive, but as a first-generation implementation it still comes with some compromises, such as roughly a one-third stop loss in dynamic range and a relatively low-resolution sensor. Personally, I think an α9 IV with a 30+MP global shutter sensor would make much more sense. But the 4 year release cycle rule demands this camera to get a successor in late 2027 only

RX100VIII and ZV-E1II (10% chance this is coming in 2026)
They are more niche models and, in my opinion, don’t really qualify as Sony’s “big launch of the year.” I think there’s a small chance we’ll see the RX100 VIII later this year, or at the latest in early 2027. As for the ZV-E1 II, I’m honestly not particularly interested in it.

Sony FX6II, FX30II and no FX3II (10% chance this is coming in 2026)
First things first: Don’t think we will ever get a new FX3II. But the FX6 and FX30 are definitely in dire need of a successor model. The problem is so far I have not heard of such thing happening soon :(

The surprise model: (10% chance this is coming this year)
Sony will soon launch a new 180MP medium format sensor, and it recently announced the even larger Rialto 65 sensor. I wonder if Sony might surprise us by introducing a fixed-lens medium format camera as a way to test the market. I can’t see the company launching an entirely new mirrorless medium format system just yet, as that would require a significant long-term commitment.

So here is the question for you: